Islanders vs. Maple Leafs prediction: Why Toronto is favored to win Wednesday's NHL matchup [9/30/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Wednesday's NHL matchup between the Islanders and Maple Leafs, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Maple Leafs a 54.4% chance of defeating the Islanders. According to our model, the Islanders (+1.5) have a 67.9% chance of covering the puck line, while the 6-goal over/under has a 50.2% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Islanders +1.5 (-213) / Maple Leafs -1.5 (+190)
• Moneyline: Islanders +120, Maple Leafs -130
• Total: Over/Under 6 (-110/-110)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Islanders +1.5 @ -213 via ESPN BET
• Moneyline: Islanders @ +120 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 6 @ -110 via Caesars

According to our best NHL bets, the top play to make on this game is Islanders to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs player props

Who will score a goal in Islanders vs. Maple Leafs?

According to our model, Auston Matthews is most likely to score an anytime goal in Islanders vs. Maple Leafs.

Our projections give Matthews a 37.6% chance of scoring a goal at Scotiabank Arena, while the star is a 7.8% chance of netting the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

NY Islanders

• Bo Horvat: 33.5% probability
• Kyle Palmieri: 24.9% probability
• Matthew Schaefer: 24.4% probability
• Emil Heineman: 22.7% probability
• Simon Holmstrom: 20.9% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 37.6% probability
• William Nylander: 34.1% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 27.0% probability
• John Tavares: 26.9% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 24.0% probability

First goal scorer predictions

NY Islanders

• Bo Horvat: 6.5% probability
• Matthew Schaefer: 5.2% probability
• Kyle Palmieri: 4.7% probability
• Emil Heineman: 4.0% probability
• Simon Holmstrom: 3.8% probability

Toronto Maple Leafs

• Auston Matthews: 7.8% probability
• William Nylander: 7.5% probability
• Kirill Marchenko: 5.7% probability
• John Tavares: 5.1% probability
• Jack Roslovic: 4.1% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Wednesday's action between the Maple Leafs and Islanders at Scotiabank Arena is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: NY Islanders vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Wednesday, September 30, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Maple Leafs, with a 54.4% win probability, will likely beat the Islanders in Wednesday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.