Rangers vs. Maple Leafs prediction, odds and best bet for Oct. 22, 2026

The New York Rangers are favored to beat the Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday, according to Dimers' NHL pregame model.

Our Rangers vs. Maple Leafs prediction gives New York a 50.8% chance of winning at Scotiabank Arena, while the latest odds suggest the best betting value lies in under 6.5 goals.

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs: Key predictions

• Rangers win probability: 50.8%
• Maple Leafs win probability: 49.2%
• Maple Leafs +1.5 puck line: 69.8% cover probability
• Under 6.5 goals: 53.6% probability

Dimers' NHL pregame model estimates how many goals each team is likely to score, accounting for factors such as recent form, shooting and save percentages, home-ice advantage, and rest.

These projections power our NHL predictions, which show the probability of each team winning, covering the puck line, and the total goals going over or under the betting line.

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets monitored by Dimers.

• Rangers moneyline: -108 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Maple Leafs moneyline: 49¢ (Novig)
• Rangers -1.5: +220 (DraftKings)
• Maple Leafs +1.5: -260 (bet365)
• Over 6.5 goals: 49¢ (Novig)
• Under 6.5 goals: 51¢ (Novig)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Best value bet: Under 6.5 (51¢)

The Rangers may be more likely to win, but Dimers' top value bet is under 6.5 total goals at 51¢, available at Novig.

Those odds imply a 51.5% chance of the game finishing under 6.5 goals, while our model puts that probability at 53.6%.

That's a 2.1% edge on the under, the largest across the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets based on Dimers' probabilities and the best available odds.

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs goal-scorer predictions

Unlike our NHL pregame model, Dimers' NHL player props model simulates each matchup 10,000 times to estimate goal-scoring probabilities, factoring in expected player usage, lineup changes, the opposing team, and projected team goals.

William Nylander of the Maple Leafs leads Thursday's anytime goal-scorer projections at 40.1%, ahead of teammate Auston Matthews (40.0%). NY's most likely goal-scorer, Pavel Dorofeyev, follows at 35.8%. Nylander and Dorofeyev share the highest first goal-scorer probability at 8.2% each.

Most likely anytime goal-scorers

• William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 40.1%
• Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 40.0%
• Pavel Dorofeyev (Rangers): 35.8%
• Mika Zibanejad (Rangers): 33.4%
• Alexis Lafreniere (Rangers): 32.2%

First goal-scorer predictions

• William Nylander (Maple Leafs): 8.2%
• Pavel Dorofeyev (Rangers): 8.2%
• Auston Matthews (Maple Leafs): 7.2%
• Mika Zibanejad (Rangers): 6.3%
• Alexis Lafreniere (Rangers): 5.9%

These are model probabilities, not betting recommendations. Compare projections with available odds to assess potential value.

Unlock all Rangers vs. Maple Leafs predictions with Dimers Pro

Get the complete picture for Thursday's matchup with Dimers Pro, including:

• Best bets for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals markets.
• Full anytime and first goal-scorer probabilities for players on both teams.
• High-value player props across anytime goal-scorer, first goal-scorer, shots on goal, points, and assists markets.

See our full range of Rangers vs. Maple Leafs predictions.

Rangers vs. Maple Leafs game details

• Matchup: NY Rangers vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
• Date: Thursday, October 22, 2026
• Puck drop: 7:00 PM ET/4:00 PM PT
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from Dimers' proprietary NHL models, presented through a human-written template. Matchup-specific information is populated automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and may change as new information becomes available. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

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