Penguins vs. Avalanche prediction: Why Colorado is favored to win Friday's NHL matchup [10/16/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's NHL matchup between the Penguins and Avalanche, forming part of our NHL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Avalanche a 63.6% chance of beating the Penguins. According to our model, the Penguins (+1.5) have a 58.4% chance of covering the puck line, while the over/under total of 6.5 goals has a 50.6% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NHL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Puck Line: Penguins +1.5 (-135) / Avalanche -1.5 (+130)
• Moneyline: Penguins +186, Avalanche -190
• Total: Over/Under 6.5 (-120/+117)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Puck line: Penguins +1.5 @ -135 via BetMGM
• Moneyline: Penguins @ 35¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 6.5 @ 46¢ via Novig

According to our NHL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 6.5 total goals.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Penguins vs. Avalanche player props

Who will score a goal in Penguins vs. Avalanche?

According to our model, Nathan MacKinnon is most likely to score an anytime goal in Penguins vs. Avalanche.

Our projections give MacKinnon a 42.7% chance of scoring a goal at Ball Arena, while the star is an 8.8% chance of registering the first goal the game.

Anytime goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 27.4% probability
• Bryan Rust: 27.4% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 26.4% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 23.7% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 21.6% probability

Colorado Avalanche

• Nathan MacKinnon: 42.7% probability
• Martin Necas: 37.0% probability
• Artturi Lehkonen: 31.5% probability
• Brock Nelson: 31.1% probability
• Cale Makar: 24.4% probability

First goal scorer predictions

Pittsburgh Penguins

• Sidney Crosby: 4.9% probability
• Rickard Rakell: 4.7% probability
• Bryan Rust: 4.6% probability
• Evgeni Malkin: 4.0% probability
• Egor Chinakhov: 3.5% probability

Colorado Avalanche

• Nathan MacKinnon: 8.8% probability
• Martin Necas: 7.5% probability
• Brock Nelson: 6.5% probability
• Artturi Lehkonen: 6.1% probability
• Cale Makar: 4.7% probability

Game info & puck drop details

Friday's action between the Avalanche and Penguins at Ball Arena is scheduled to commence at 9:00 PM ET.

• Who: Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Colorado Avalanche
• Date: Friday, October 16, 2026
• Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
• Venue: Ball Arena

Conclusion

We predict the Avalanche, with a 63.6% win probability, will likely beat the Penguins in Friday's NHL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NHL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.