Lightning vs. Avalanche Prediction, Picks & Odds
Moneyline
- Lightning
- Avalanche
- Nikita Kucherov37.1%
- Brandon Hagel36.9%
- Jake Guentzel33.5%
- Anthony Cirelli
- Brayden Point
- Nathan MacKinnon41.7%
- Martin Necas34.0%
- Artturi Lehkonen30.3%
- Brock Nelson
- Cale Makar
Lightning vs. Avalanche prediction & analysis
Game overview: NHL Friday
- Teams: Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Colorado Avalanche
- Date: Friday, October 23, 2026
- Puck drop: 9:00PM ET
- Venue: Ball Arena
Current betting odds
- Puck line: Lightning (+1.5, -215), Avalanche (-1.5, +205)
- Moneyline: Lightning +115, Avalanche -120
- Total (Over/Under): 6 goals (-118/+101)
Dimers’ win probabilities
- Lightning: 45.8%
- Avalanche: 54.2%
Our NHL win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team’s offensive and defensive performance, calculating multiple factors and accounting for OT and shootout chances.
It draws from these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, puck line, and total goals.
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Our Prediction: Who Wins?
After extensive simulations, our model gives the Lightning a win probability of 45.8%, while the Avalanche have a win probability of 54.2%.
Summary
According to our analysis, the Avalanche are more likely to beat the Lightning in the NHL game at Ball Arena on Friday.
That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.
Responsible gambling
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