Daniil Medvedev vs. Tommy Paul prediction, odds, picks for ATP Shanghai Masters 2026

Using powerful machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's Medvedev-Paul men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives Medvedev a 63% chance of defeating Paul at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Tommy Paul +176, Daniil Medvedev -200

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Paul @ +176 via DraftKings
• First Set: Paul @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Tommy Paul to win.

Although Paul is less than likely to win, he provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Shanghai Masters match between Daniil Medvedev and Tommy Paul is scheduled to commence on Friday at 12:00 AM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Tommy Paul
• Date: Friday, October 16, 2026
• Approx. Time: 12:00 AM ET/9:00PM PT
• Tournament: ATP Shanghai, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Quarterfinals

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 63% win probability, will likely beat Tommy Paul at the ATP Shanghai Masters tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.