Paula Badosa vs. Daria Kasatkina prediction, odds, picks for WTA China Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Tuesday's Badosa-Kasatkina women's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Badosa a 68% chance of beating Kasatkina at the WTA China Open tournament. Additionally, Badosa has a 65% chance of winning the first set, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Daria Kasatkina +210, Paula Badosa -250
• First Set: Badosa -227, Kasatkina +175

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Kasatkina @ +210 via DraftKings
• First Set: Kasatkina @ +175 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Daria Kasatkina to win.

Although Kasatkina is less than likely to win, she provides the best value at the current available odds.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The WTA China Open match between Paula Badosa and Daria Kasatkina is scheduled to commence on Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET.

• Who: Paula Badosa vs. Daria Kasatkina
• Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
• Approx. Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
• Tournament: WTA Beijing, China Women's Singles 2026
• Round: Round of 128

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise noted.

Conclusion

We predict Paula Badosa, with a 68% win probability, will likely beat Daria Kasatkina at the WTA China Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.