Hubert Hurkacz vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina prediction, odds, picks for ATP Chengdu Open 2026

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Hurkacz-Davidovich Fokina men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives Hurkacz a 56% chance of defeating Davidovich Fokina at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament. Additionally, Hurkacz has a 56% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Hurkacz (-1.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 25.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina +133, Hubert Hurkacz -143
• First Set: Hurkacz -139, Davidovich Fokina +110

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Davidovich Fokina @ +133 via DraftKings
• First Set: Davidovich Fokina @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Alejandro Davidovich Fokina to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Chengdu Open match between Hubert Hurkacz and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is scheduled to commence on Tuesday at 7:00 AM ET.

• Who: Hubert Hurkacz vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
• Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:00 AM ET/4:00AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Chengdu, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Final

All dates and times mentioned in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Hubert Hurkacz, with a 56% win probability, will likely beat Alejandro Davidovich Fokina at the ATP Chengdu Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.