Daniil Medvedev vs. Andrey Rublev prediction, odds, picks for ATP Hangzhou Open 2026

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's Medvedev-Rublev men's singles match, forming part of our tennis predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Medvedev a 64% chance of defeating Rublev at the ATP Hangzhou Open tournament. Additionally, Medvedev has a 62% chance of winning the first set. The simulations also show Medvedev (-2.5) has a 53% chance of covering the games spread, while the under 24.5 games has a 59% chance of hitting, according to our model.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the most up-to-date betting odds in America for this match, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Andrey Rublev +165, Daniil Medvedev -200
• First Set: Medvedev -164, Rublev +130

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Moneyline: Rublev @ +165 via DraftKings
• First Set: Rublev @ -135 via DraftKings

According to our tennis best bets, the top play to make on this match is Andrey Rublev to win the first set.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first serve details

The ATP Hangzhou Open match between Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev is scheduled to commence on Tuesday at 7:30 AM ET.

• Who: Daniil Medvedev vs. Andrey Rublev
• Date: Tuesday, September 29, 2026
• Approx. Time: 7:30 AM ET/4:30AM PT
• Tournament: ATP Hangzhou, China Men's Singles 2026
• Round: Final

All dates and times in this article are United States Eastern Time unless otherwise stated.

Conclusion

We predict Daniil Medvedev, with a 64% win probability, will likely beat Andrey Rublev at the ATP Hangzhou Open tournament.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary Tennis prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.