Mercury vs. Wings prediction sees Paige Bueckers projected to score 14 points in Saturday's WNBA game [9/19/2026]

The Dallas Wings will face the Phoenix Mercury in WNBA action at College Park Center on Saturday, beginning at 1:00 PM ET.

Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Wings as the most likely winner in this Mercury vs. Wings prediction.

The Wings, with star players like Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale and Jessica Shepard, are set to take on the Mercury, whose lineup includes Shay Ciezki, Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack.

Bueckers, the young phenom making headlines with the Wings, is expected to deliver a standout performance with a projected 14 points and 1 three.

This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.

Mercury vs. Wings prediction and odds

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's WNBA matchup between the Mercury and Wings, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Wings an 81.7% chance of beating the Mercury. According to our model, the Mercury (+10.5) have a 54.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 172.5 points has a 50.2% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Mercury +10.5 (+100) / Wings -10.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Mercury +426, Wings -456
• Total: Over/Under 172.5 (+100/-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Mercury +10.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Wings @ 82¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 172.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket

According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mercury +10.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

WNBA player props are an exciting way to wager on the Mercury vs. Wings game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at College Park Center.

Shay Ciezki is expected to lead the Mercury with 15 points, 3 rebounds and 3 assists, while Paige Bueckers is projected to have 14 points, 3 rebounds and 5 assists for the Wings.

Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Paige Bueckers as the most likely player to open the scoring.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Mercury player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Mercury are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Shay Ciezki	15	3	3	2	26
Alyssa Thomas	14	7	8	0	40
Natasha Mack	10	6	1	0	24
Alexa Held	10	2	2	2	17
Noemie Brochant	9	3	2	1	20

Wings player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Wings:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Paige Bueckers	14	3	5	1	29
A. Ogunbowale	12	3	3	1	22
Jessica Shepard	10	8	4	0	29
Aziaha James	9	3	2	1	19
Maddy Siegrist	8	4	1	1	18

Game info & tip-off details

Saturday's action between the Wings and Mercury at College Park Center is scheduled to begin at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings
• Date: Saturday, September 19, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: College Park Center

Conclusion

We predict the Wings, with an 81.7% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Saturday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.