Sep 22, 2026
WNBA player props today: Tuesday's best props include Jackie Young [9/22/2026]
Read Article Sparks vs. Aces prediction favors Las Vegas to win Tuesday's WNBA game [9/22/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 90.0% win probability for the Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
WNBA action continues on Tuesday at 10:00 PM ET as the Los Angeles Sparks face off with the favored Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner in this Sparks vs. Aces prediction.
The Aces, powered by A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, are set to take on the Sparks, who feature Nneka Ogwumike, Rae Burrell and Monique Akoa-Makani.
This article offers further insights into Tuesday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Sparks vs. Aces prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Tuesday's WNBA game between the Sparks and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Aces a 90.0% chance of defeating the Sparks. According to our model, the Sparks (+16.5) have a 58.5% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 179.5 points has a 55.0% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Sparks +16.5 (+108) / Aces -16.5 (-110)
- Moneyline: Sparks +1011, Aces -1150
- Total: Over/Under 179.5 (+100/-104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Sparks +16.5 @ 48¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Sparks @ 9¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Under 179.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Sparks +16.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Top player props
Betting on Los Angeles vs. Las Vegas WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Nneka Ogwumike is expected to lead the Sparks with 15 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 24 points, 9 rebounds and 5 assists for the Aces.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to A'ja Wilson striking first with a 17.1% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Sparks player props
Our model's projected player stats for the Sparks are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike | 15 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 33 |
| Rae Burrell | 12 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 |
| M. Akoa-Makani | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
| Ariel Atkins | 7 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19 |
| Emma Cannon | 7 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 14 |
Aces player props
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 24 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 50 |
| Jackie Young | 19 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 39 |
| Chelsea Gray | 10 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 27 |
| Cheyenne Parker | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
| Mai Yamamoto | 7 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
Game info & tip-off details
Tuesday's matchup between the Aces and Sparks at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to start at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date: Tuesday, September 22, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with a 90.0% win probability, will likely beat the Sparks in Tuesday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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