Sep 21, 2026
WNBA player props today: Monday's best props include Angel Reese [9/21/2026]
Read Article Wings vs. Mercury prediction sees Paige Bueckers projected to score 18 points in Monday's WNBA matchup [9/21/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Mac Douglass, Senior Editor
Dimers' simulation model projects a 72.8% win probability for the Wings at Mortgage Matchup Center.
The Phoenix Mercury will square off with the favored Dallas Wings in WNBA action at Mortgage Matchup Center on Monday, starting at 10:00 PM ET.
Dimers' proven WNBA model projects the Wings as the most likely winner in this Wings vs. Mercury prediction.
The Mercury, who have stars such as Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Natasha Mack, will face off against the Wings, featuring Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale and Jessica Shepard.
Bueckers, the young phenom making headlines with the Wings, is expected to deliver a standout performance with a projected 18 points and 4 threes.
This article offers a closer look at Monday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Wings vs. Mercury prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Monday's WNBA matchup between the Wings and Mercury, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Wings a 72.8% chance of defeating the Mercury. According to our model, the Wings (-6.5) have a 51.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 173.5 points has a 50.4% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Wings -6.5 (+109) / Mercury +6.5 (-131)
- Moneyline: Wings -213, Mercury +203
- Total: Over/Under 173.5 (-104/+102)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Wings -6.5 @ 48¢ via Kalshi
- Moneyline: Wings @ 68¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Under 173.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Wings to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Top player props
WNBA player props are a common way to wager on Monday's Dallas vs. Phoenix game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Paige Bueckers is expected to lead the Wings with 18 points, 4 rebounds and 6 assists, while Kahleah Copper is projected to have 15 points, 3 rebounds and 2 assists for the Mercury.
Looking at the opening tip, the numbers point to Paige Bueckers striking first with a 14.3% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Wings player props
Our model's projected player stats for the Wings are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paige Bueckers | 18 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 37 |
| A. Ogunbowale | 16 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 32 |
| Jessica Shepard | 12 | 9 | 5 | 0 | 33 |
| Aziaha James | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Awak Kuier | 8 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 24 |
Mercury player props
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Mercury:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kahleah Copper | 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 25 |
| Alyssa Thomas | 11 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 37 |
| Natasha Mack | 9 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 27 |
| Alexa Held | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 15 |
| Noemie Brochant | 8 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
Game info & tip-off details
Monday's action between the Mercury and Wings at Mortgage Matchup Center is scheduled to begin at 10:00 PM ET.
- Who: Dallas Wings vs. Phoenix Mercury
- Date: Monday, September 21, 2026
- Time: 10:00 PM ET/7:00PM PT
- Venue: Mortgage Matchup Center
Conclusion
We predict the Wings, with a 72.8% win probability, will likely beat the Mercury in Monday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Mac Douglass specializes in NFL previews for the NFC South and NFC East, MLB best bets, Formula 1 race previews, and professional tennis insights. Combining predictive simulations and data-driven sports analysis, Mac provides in-depth content to elevate the betting experience for sports fans.
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