Sep 21, 2026
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Read Article Storm vs. Aces prediction favors Las Vegas to win Sunday's WNBA game [9/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects an 89.8% win probability for the Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
The Las Vegas Aces will face the Seattle Storm in WNBA action at Michelob ULTRA Arena on Sunday, beginning at 9:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Aces as the most likely winner in this Storm vs. Aces prediction.
The Aces, who have the likes of A'ja Wilson, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray, are set to take on the Storm, who feature Flau'jae Johnson, Natisha Hiedeman and Dominique Malonga.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Storm vs. Aces prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's WNBA matchup between the Storm and Aces, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our leading predictive model gives the Aces an 89.8% chance of defeating the Storm. According to our model, the Storm (+16.5) have a 62.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 176.5-point over/under has a 50.4% chance of going over.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Storm +16.5 (+104) / Aces -16.5 (-113)
- Moneyline: Storm +1150, Aces -1329
- Total: Over/Under 176.5 (-110/+104)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Storm +16.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Storm @ 8¢ via Polymarket
- Total: Under 176.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Storm +16.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Top player props
WNBA player props are an enjoyable way to wager on Sunday's Seattle vs. Las Vegas game without necessarily betting on the outcome. We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Michelob ULTRA Arena.
Flau'jae Johnson is expected to lead the Storm with 13 points, 5 rebounds and 3 assists, while A'ja Wilson is projected to have 25 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Aces.
When evaluating the first basket market, A'ja Wilson is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 17.4% probability.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Storm player props
Our model's projected player stats for the Storm are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F. Johnson | 13 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 31 |
| N. Hiedeman | 11 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
| D. Malonga | 11 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 26 |
| Jade Melbourne | 9 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| Awa Fam | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
Aces player props
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Aces:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A'ja Wilson | 25 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 49 |
| Jackie Young | 19 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 38 |
| Chelsea Gray | 11 | 3 | 6 | 2 | 28 |
| Cheyenne Parker | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 19 |
| Jewell Loyd | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 16 |
Game info & tip-off details
Sunday's game between the Aces and Storm at Michelob ULTRA Arena is scheduled to begin at 9:00 PM ET.
- Who: Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces
- Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
- Time: 9:00 PM ET/6:00PM PT
- Venue: Michelob ULTRA Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Aces, with an 89.8% win probability, will likely beat the Storm in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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