Sep 21, 2026
WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Monday, September 21, 2026
Read Article Fire vs. Sparks prediction favors Los Angeles to win Sunday's WNBA matchup [9/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Dimers' simulation model projects a 58.5% win probability for the Sparks at Crypto.com Arena.
The Los Angeles Sparks will square off with the Portland Fire in WNBA action at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday, commencing at 7:00 PM ET.
Dimers' advanced WNBA model projects the Sparks as the most likely winner in this Fire vs. Sparks prediction.
The Sparks, powered by Nneka Ogwumike, Rae Burrell and Monique Akoa-Makani, will face off against the Fire, featuring Carla Leite, Megan DiLeo and Frieda Buhner.
This article offers further insights into Sunday's matchup, including best bets and player prop picks.
Fire vs. Sparks prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's WNBA game between the Fire and Sparks, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Sparks a 58.5% chance of beating the Fire. According to our model, the Fire (+2.5) have a 50.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 178.5 points has a 57.6% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Spread: Fire +2.5 (-108) / Sparks -2.5 (+104)
- Moneyline: Fire +122, Sparks -125
- Total: Over/Under 178.5 (-102/-106)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Sparks -2.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket
- Moneyline: Sparks @ -125 via BetMGM
- Total: Under 178.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
According to our WNBA best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 178.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Top player props
Betting on Portland vs. Los Angeles WNBA player props? We use the best information available to project how each team's leading players will perform at Crypto.com Arena.
Carla Leite is expected to lead the Fire with 16 points, 3 rebounds and 7 assists, while Nneka Ogwumike is projected to have 17 points, 9 rebounds and 3 assists for the Sparks.
Shifting focus to the first basket market, our projections highlight Nneka Ogwumike as the most likely player to open the scoring.
Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.
Fire player props
Our model's projected player stats for the Fire are:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carla Leite | 16 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 34 |
| Megan DiLeo | 15 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 27 |
| Frieda Buhner | 9 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 18 |
| Emily Engstler | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 25 |
| Amy Okonkwo | 8 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
Sparks player props
Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Sparks:
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | 3PM | DFS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nneka Ogwumike | 17 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 36 |
| Rae Burrell | 14 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 27 |
| M. Akoa-Makani | 10 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 23 |
| Erica Wheeler | 9 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 24 |
| Emma Cannon | 8 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 17 |
Game info & tip-off details
Sunday's game between the Sparks and Fire at Crypto.com Arena is scheduled to start at 7:00 PM ET.
- Who: Portland Fire vs. Los Angeles Sparks
- Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
- Time: 7:00 PM ET/4:00PM PT
- Venue: Crypto.com Arena
Conclusion
We predict the Sparks, with a 58.5% win probability, will likely beat the Fire in Sunday's WNBA matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
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