Dream vs. Liberty prediction favors Atlanta to win Monday's WNBA game [9/21/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's WNBA matchup between the Dream and Liberty, forming part of our WNBA predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Dream a 55.8% chance of defeating the Liberty. According to our model, the Dream (-1.5) have a 50.1% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 177.5 points has a 51.4% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best WNBA odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Dream -1.5 (-104) / Liberty +1.5 (+100)
• Moneyline: Dream -113, Liberty +108
• Total: Over/Under 177.5 (+104/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Liberty +1.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Dream @ 53¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 177.5 @ 49¢ via Polymarket

According to our best WNBA bets, the top play to make on this game is Dream to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Top player props

Looking for Dream vs. Liberty WNBA player props? We have crunched the numbers to project how each team's leading players will perform at Barclays Center.

Allisha Gray is expected to lead the Dream with 16 points, 5 rebounds and 4 assists, while Breanna Stewart is projected to have 18 points, 8 rebounds and 3 assists for the Liberty.

When evaluating the first basket market, Jonquel Jones is our top projected player to score first, backed by a 13.2% probability.

Check out our WNBA player projections for a full range of projected box scores, including points, assists, rebounds and a deeper look at today's WNBA first basket picks.

Dream player props

Our model's projected player stats for the Dream are:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Allisha Gray	16	5	4	2	32
Angel Reese	15	11	3	0	39
Rhyne Howard	15	3	3	3	32
Jordin Canada	10	3	7	1	30
Isobel Borlase	8	2	1	1	14

Liberty player props

Projected points, rebounds, assists and three-pointers made for the Liberty:

Player	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	DFS
Breanna Stewart	18	8	3	1	39
Jonquel Jones	14	9	2	2	34
Sabrina Ionescu	14	4	5	2	31
Pauline Astier	9	3	3	1	20
Leonie Fiebich	8	5	2	1	20

Game info & tip-off details

Monday's matchup between the Liberty and Dream at Barclays Center is scheduled to start at 8:00 PM ET.

• Who: Atlanta Dream vs. New York Liberty
• Date: Monday, September 21, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET/5:00PM PT
• Venue: Barclays Center

Conclusion

We predict the Dream, with a 55.8% win probability, will likely beat the Liberty in Monday's WNBA matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary WNBA prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.