WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, August 11, 2026

Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Tuesday, August 11, 2026—are live with the Fever's Kelsey Mitchell projected as the most likely player to score first.

Dimers’ first basket projections draw on detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.

Mitchell, A'ja Wilson and Shakira Austin lead Tuesday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also identify tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities powered by our upgraded WNBA player props model.

WNBA first basket predictions tonight (August 11, 2026)

• Kelsey Mitchell (Fever): 15.5% probability
• A'ja Wilson (Aces): 15.0% probability
• Shakira Austin (Mystics): 14.9% probability
• Kahleah Copper (Mercury): 13.8% probability
• Nneka Ogwumike (Sparks): 13.0% probability
• Breanna Stewart (Liberty): 12.8% probability
• Aliyah Boston (Fever): 12.5% probability
• Dearica Hamby (Sparks): 12.4% probability
• Kiki Iriafen (Mystics): 11.8% probability
• Jackie Young (Aces): 11.8% probability
• Caitlin Clark (Fever): 11.4% probability
• NaLyssa Smith (Aces): 11.2% probability
• Sabrina Ionescu (Liberty): 11.2% probability
• Alyssa Thomas (Mercury): 10.7% probability
• Jonquel Jones (Liberty): 10.6% probability
• Natasha Mack (Mercury): 9.7% probability
• DeWanna Bonner (Mercury): 9.6% probability
• Sonia Citron (Mystics): 9.6% probability
• Pauline Astier (Liberty): 9.4% probability
• Rae Burrell (Sparks): 9.3% probability
• Erica Wheeler (Sparks): 8.9% probability
• Chelsea Gray (Aces): 7.4% probability
• Cotie McMahon (Mystics): 7.2% probability
• Michaela Onyenwere (Mystics): 6.6% probability
• Ariel Atkins (Sparks): 6.5% probability
• Noemie Brochant (Mercury): 6.2% probability
• Rebecca Allen (Liberty): 6.1% probability
• Makayla Timpson (Fever): 5.9% probability
• Sophie Cunningham (Fever): 4.7% probability
• Jewell Loyd (Aces): 4.7% probability

WNBA first basket picks today (August 11, 2026)

• Kelsey Mitchell (Fever): 2.8% edge at +690
• Sonia Citron (Mystics): 1.9% edge at +1200
• NaLyssa Smith (Aces): 1.6% edge at +940
• Jackie Young (Aces): 1.3% edge at +850
• Erica Wheeler (Sparks): 0.5% edge at +1100
• Pauline Astier (Liberty): 0.4% edge at +1020
• Chelsea Gray (Aces): 0.2% edge at +1300
• Rae Burrell (Sparks): 0.2% edge at +1000
• Kiki Iriafen (Mystics): 0.1% edge at +750

Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.

For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 8/11.

Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket

For Tuesday, August 11, 2026, Kelsey Mitchell, A'ja Wilson and Shakira Austin lead our first basket projections, with Mitchell shaping as the strongest value play at +690. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.

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