Carlton Blues vs. Brisbane Lions prediction: Why Lions are favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 21 matchup [8/1/2026]
Get Carlton Blues vs Brisbane Lions predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Carlton Blues will square off with the favored Brisbane Lions in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Marvel Stadium on Saturday, beginning at 5:40 AM ET.
Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Lions as the most likely winner in this Lions vs. Blues prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Blues vs. Lions prediction: Who will win Round 21 game?
Our independent predictive model gives the Lions a 70.5% chance of defeating the Blues.
According to our model, the Blues (+22.5) have a 58.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 184.5 points has a 51.1% chance of staying under,.
Brisbane vs. Carlton odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Lions | Blues |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -357 | +270 |
| Line (Spread) | -22.5 (-115) | +22.5 (-115) |
| Total | o184.5 (-115) | u184.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Lions vs. Blues picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Blues +22.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Blues | +270 |
| Total | Under 184.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Blues +22.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Blues vs. Lions game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Blues and Lions at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to commence at 5:40 AM ET.
- Who: Brisbane Lions vs. Carlton Blues
- Date: Saturday, August 1, 2026
- Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
- Venue: Marvel Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Lions, with a 70.5% win probability, will likely beat the Blues in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
