Adelaide Crows vs. Collingwood Magpies prediction: Why Crows are favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 20 matchup [7/23/2026]

The Adelaide Crows and Collingwood Magpies will lock horns in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Adelaide Oval on Thursday, starting at 5:30 AM ET.

Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Crows as the most likely winner of the Magpies vs. Crows game.

This article offers further insights into Thursday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Crows vs. Magpies prediction: Who will win Round 20 game?

Using powerful machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Thursday's AFL matchup between the Magpies and Crows, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Crows a 69.7% chance of beating the Magpies.

According to our model, the Magpies (+16.5) have a 50.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 162.5 points has a 50.7% chance of staying under,.

Collingwood vs. Adelaide odds

We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

Bet Type	Magpies	Crows
H2H (Moneyline)	+210	-270
Line (Spread)	+16.5 (-120)	-16.5 (-110)
Total	o162.5 (-115)	u162.5 (-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Magpies vs. Crows picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

Bet Type	Pick	Bet Now
Spread	Crows -16.5	-110
Moneyline	Magpies	+210
Total	Under 162.5	-115

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 162.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Crows vs. Magpies game-day updates and essential details

Thursday's Australian rules football action between the Crows and Magpies at Adelaide Oval is scheduled to begin at 5:30 AM ET.

• Who: Collingwood Magpies vs. Adelaide Crows
• Date: Thursday, July 23, 2026
• Time: 5:30 AM ET/2:30AM PT
• Venue: Adelaide Oval

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Crows, with a 69.7% win probability, will likely beat the Magpies in Thursday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.