Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers prediction: Hawks favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 20 matchup [7/25/2026]
Get Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Hawthorn Hawks and Essendon Bombers will meet in the Australian Football League (AFL) at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, starting at 2:15 AM ET.
Based on updated simulation results, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Bombers vs. Hawks game.
This article offers further insights into Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Hawks vs. Bombers prediction: Who will win Round 20 game?
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 96.3% chance of defeating the Bombers.
According to our model, the Hawks (-53.5) have a 58.1% chance of covering the spread, while the 168.5-point over/under has a 51.7% chance of going over,.
Essendon vs. Hawthorn odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bombers | Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +1200 | -5000 |
| Line (Spread) | +53.5 (-115) | -53.5 (-115) |
| Total | o168.5 (-115) | u168.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bombers vs. Hawks picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawks -53.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Hawks | -5000 |
| Total | Over 168.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Hawks -53.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Hawks vs. Bombers game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Hawks and Bombers at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 2:15 AM ET.
- Who: Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks
- Date: Saturday, July 25, 2026
- Time: 2:15 AM ET/11:15PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 96.3% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
