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Read Article Essendon Bombers vs. St Kilda Saints prediction: Why Saints are favored to win Sunday's AFL Round 17 matchup [7/5/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Get Essendon Bombers vs St Kilda Saints predictions for AFL Sunday.
The Essendon Bombers will take on the favored St Kilda Saints in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Marvel Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 1:15 AM ET.
Based on the latest simulations, Dimers' proven AFL model projects the Saints as the most likely winner of the Saints vs. Bombers game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Bombers vs. Saints prediction: Who will win Round 17 game?
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the result of Sunday's AFL matchup between the Saints and Bombers, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model gives the Saints a 79.1% chance of beating the Bombers.
According to our model, the Saints (-25.5) have a 51.3% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 174.5 points has a 50.8% chance of staying under,.
St Kilda vs. Essendon odds
We have researched the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Saints | Bombers |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | -455 | +310 |
| Line (Spread) | -25.5 (-115) | +25.5 (-115) |
| Total | o174.5 (-115) | u174.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Saints vs. Bombers picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints -25.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Saints | -455 |
| Total | Under 174.5 | -115 |
According to our best AFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 174.5 total points.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Bombers vs. Saints game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's Australian rules football action between the Bombers and Saints at Marvel Stadium is scheduled to commence at 1:15 AM ET.
- Who: St Kilda Saints vs. Essendon Bombers
- Date: Sunday, July 5, 2026
- Time: 1:15 AM ET/10:15PM PT
- Venue: Marvel Stadium
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Saints, with a 79.1% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Sunday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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