Toledo vs. Michigan State prediction, odds, pick for Nov. 5, 2026

Michigan State is favored to beat Toledo at Jack Breslin Students Events Center on Thursday (8:00 PM ET), according to Dimers' men's college basketball model.

Our Toledo vs. Michigan State prediction gives Michigan State a 98.6% chance of winning, while the latest odds suggest there's betting value on the under 154.5 points.

Toledo vs. Michigan State key predictions

• Predicted score: Michigan State 89-61 Toledo
• Michigan State win probability: 98.6%
• Toledo win probability: 1.4%
• Michigan State -27.5 spread: 50.3% cover probability
• Under 154.5 points: 52.7% probability

Our men's college basketball predictions project each team's final score using offensive and defensive efficiency, recent performance, long-term trends, and matchup-specific factors.

We calculate win, spread, and total probabilities based on these projections and historical CBB scoring patterns, then compare them with the latest odds to find betting value.

Toledo vs. Michigan State odds

Here are the best available odds across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets we track.

• Toledo moneyline: +5500 (FanDuel)
• Michigan State moneyline: -10000 (BetMGM)
• Toledo +27.5: -110 (Caesars Sportsbook)
• Michigan State -27.5: -108 (DraftKings)
• Over 154.5 points: -108 (BetRivers)
• Under 154.5 points: -105 (BetMGM)

Odds are subject to change and may vary by location.

Toledo vs. Michigan State pick: Under 154.5 (-105)

Our model makes Michigan State the likelier winner, but our best value bet is the under 154.5 total points at -105 on BetMGM.

Those odds give the under an implied probability of 51.2%, while our model puts it at 52.7%.

That's a 1.5% edge, the largest across the moneyline, spread, and total points markets for this game.

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Toledo vs. Michigan State game details

• Matchup: Toledo Rockets vs. Michigan State Spartans
• Date: Thursday, November 5, 2026
• Time: 8:00 PM ET
• Venue: Jack Breslin Students Events Center

About this prediction

This preview uses predictions from our men's college basketball models, presented through a template written by our editorial team. Matchup details fill in automatically.

Predictions are estimates, not guarantees, and can change as new information comes in, such as injury news or lineup changes. Learn how our predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.