Mississippi Valley State vs. Alabama State prediction: Why Alabama State is favored to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Mississippi Valley State vs. Alabama State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives Alabama State a 99.6% chance of defeating Mississippi Valley State. Our predicted final score has Alabama State winning 44-9. According to our model, Alabama State (-34.5) has a 51.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 54.5 points has a 51.3% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Mississippi Valley State +34.5 (-111) / Alabama State -34.5 (-111)
• Moneyline: Mississippi Valley State +2200, Alabama State -30030
• Total: Over/Under 54.5 (-110/-120)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Alabama State -34.5 @ -111 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Alabama State @ -30030 via bet365
• Total: Under 54.5 @ -120 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Alabama State to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football game between Alabama State and Mississippi Valley State at ASU Stadium is scheduled to begin at 6:00 PM ET.

• Who: Mississippi Valley State vs. Alabama State
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 6:00 PM ET/3:00PM PT
• Venue: ASU Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict Alabama State, with a 99.6% win probability, will likely beat Mississippi Valley State in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.