Missouri vs. Mississippi State prediction: Why Mississippi State is favored to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Using innovative machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Missouri vs. Mississippi State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives Mississippi State a 67.8% chance of defeating Missouri. Our predicted final score has Mississippi State winning 32-26. According to our model, Mississippi State (-4.5) has a 52.9% chance of covering the spread, while the 58.5-point over/under has an equal 50-50 chance of hitting.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Missouri +4.5 (-105) / Mississippi State -4.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Missouri +182, Mississippi State -200
• Total: Over/Under 58.5 (-106/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Mississippi State -4.5 @ -110 via FanDuel
• Moneyline: Mississippi State @ -200 via FanDuel
• Total: Under 58.5 @ -105 via Caesars

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mississippi State to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football matchup between Mississippi State and Missouri at Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field is scheduled to start at 7:45 PM ET.

• Who: Missouri vs. Mississippi State
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 7:45 PM ET/4:45PM PT
• Venue: Davis Wade Stadium at Scott Field

College football Week 4 promos

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Conclusion

We predict Mississippi State, with a 67.8% win probability, will likely beat Missouri in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.