Troy vs. Utah State prediction favors Utah State to win in college football Week 4 [2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Troy vs. Utah State, forming part of our college football predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives Utah State a 54.5% chance of beating Troy. Our predicted final score has Utah State winning 25-23. According to our model, Troy (+3) has a 54.2% chance of covering the spread, while the 47.5-point over/under has a 52.3% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best college football odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Troy +3 (-110) / Utah State -3 (-108)
• Moneyline: Troy +130, Utah State -137
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-105/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Troy +3 @ -110 via bet365
• Moneyline: Troy @ +130 via bet365
• Total: Over 47.5 @ -105 via bet365

According to our college football best bets, the top play to make on this game is Troy to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's college football matchup between Utah State and Troy at Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium is scheduled to begin at 7:30 PM ET.

• Who: Troy vs. Utah State
• Date: Saturday, September 26, 2026
• Time: 7:30 PM ET/4:30PM PT
• Venue: Merlin Olsen Field at Maverik Stadium

College football Week 4 promos

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Conclusion

We predict Utah State, with a 54.5% win probability, will likely beat Troy in Saturday's college football matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary College Football prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.