Why Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor could be Heisman favorite after Alabama game

In one of the biggest college football betting narratives of the week, three names sit at the top of the Heisman board in a three-way race for glory: Ohio State WR Jeremiah Smith as the favorite at +250, Miami QB Darian Mensah at +400, and Mississippi State QB Kamario Taylor at +500.

Taylor and Mississippi State enter Week 5 of the college football season with a 4-0 record, and he has thrown for more than 1,300 yards with 15 total touchdowns, three or more in every game.

One of the few matchups between ranked teams in Week 5 is Mississippi State vs. Alabama, and according to Dimers college football predictions, Taylor has a major opportunity to cement himself as the potential name to beat in the Heisman Trophy race.

What's at stake in Alabama vs. Mississippi State

From a rankings perspective, both teams could find themselves on the opposite side of the Top 10 than they currently are, depending on the result, with Alabama at 7th and Mississippi State at 16th. Both teams would suffer their first loss.

Head-to-head, Alabama has won 16 straight in this series, and after 10,000 simulations, Dimers gives the Crimson Tide a 67% win probability, with a projected final score of Alabama 33, Mississippi State 27.

However, read the 33% for what it is; not a long shot, but a one in three chance, and that sn't insignificant.

Mississippi State at +188 implies about 34.7%, so the model and market largely agree, though Dimers says they're just a little overpriced.

Mississippi State's projected 27 sits well below its average of 43 points per game, so expect Alabama to slow this offense, but not completely.

Kamario Taylor projections vs. Alabama

While he will be the swing point of this game, Dimers has Taylor under 266.5 passing yards in 60.6% of simulations, a big step down from 360 at Missouri and his 325-plus per-game pace, but It fits the matchup: Alabama blitzes on nearly 50% of dropbacks, and Taylor completes 58% of his passes against the blitz compared with 74% without it.

But, a quiet passing day doesn't mean a quiet day. He hasn't found the endzone himself since Week 1, but according to Dimers' college football player props, Taylor scores a touchdown in 55.1% of simulations, against about 48.8% implied at +105. He carries a Dimers edge for a pair of scores, at a 17.0% probability.

How Taylor can catch up to Smith in Heisman Trophy race

Taylor's upside is only half of the story. Ohio State WR and Heisman Trophy favorite Jeremiah Smith looks uncoverable this season.

He's up to 7 receiving touchdowns and 617 yards on 33 receptions through four games, but he will get his toughest test yet against the Iowa Hawkeyes' top-ranked defense in the nation.

The easy assumption is that Iowa's defense, allowing 8.0 points and 152 passing yards per game, quiets the favorite, likely a major reason why our model finds value in backing Smith for another big week. However, a 45.5 point total in that game certainly points to a lower ceiling.

A Smith "dud" is possible, as our model identifies a 42.2% chance that he goes under 123.5 yards and a 22.7% chance he fails to find the end zone.

Taylor probably can't count on help from Iowa as far as his standing with the voters come the winter, and he'll need to make the difference himself on Saturday. Fortunately, the Dimers model point to an edge in Taylor doing just that.

Bet on College Football with Dimers Pro

Looking for more college football predictions?

Every single player, team and betting insight in this article comes straight from Dimers Pro, your go-to resource for the college football season.

You can find picks, props and predictions for every single college football game this season via Dimers' college football predictions.

Dimers Pro subscribers can also access recommended bets, edge ratings, Signals, and the best available prices throughout the season with a Dimers Pro football season pass, giving complete access to both college football and NFL, as well as all in-season sports during that time.