Home run predictions and picks: Top bet for Friday has +900 odds [9/25/2026]

• Munetaka Murakami (White Sox): 20.4% probability
• Yordan Alvarez (Astros): 19.8%
• Junior Caminero (Rays): 18.5%
• Kyle Schwarber (Phillies): 18.2%
• Colson Montgomery (White Sox): 17.7%
• Daulton Varsho (Astros): 17.1%
• Christian Walker (Astros): 17.1%
• Shohei Ohtani (Dodgers): 16.7%
• Jo Adell (Guardians): 16.2%
• Cal Raleigh (Mariners): 16.1%

Our analysis shows Murakami leads today's MLB home run predictions with a 20.4% chance to go yard, followed by Yordan Alvarez (19.8%) and Junior Caminero (18.5%).

Kyle Schwarber and Colson Montgomery are among several other sluggers to rank inside the top 10.

Want the full list of home run props today—including every player's HR probability for Friday? Check out today's HR and hitter projections and sort by “To Hit HR” to see every player’s probability of going deep.

Friday's home run picks [9/25/2026]

Dimers Pro’s 10,000-simulation model, factoring in weather and pitching matchups, surfaces today’s highest-rated home run prop.

Daulton Varsho (Astros) to hit a home run

• Probability: 17.1%
• Odds: +900
• Edge: 7.1%
• Pitching matchup: Jacob Lopez
• More game projections: Astros vs. Athletics prediction (9:40 PM EDT)

Ranked among today’s top 10 home run projections, Houston slugger Daulton Varsho rates as a value play at +900 with FanDuel Sportsbook, showing a 7.1% edge.

With Jacob Lopez on the mound for the Athletics, the data supports Varsho as one of Friday’s strongest value spots among available home run props.

Pro users have access to a total of eight home run betting edges today, plus hit and RBI projections, pitcher props, and more—perfect for building smarter MLB parlays and round robins.

Conclusion

For September 25, 2026, our MLB home run predictions are locked in, with sluggers like Munetaka Murakami, Yordan Alvarez and Junior Caminero projected to be among the most powerful bats in today’s games. But it's Daulton Varsho who emerges with the day’s strongest model-backed value, supported by a 7.1% edge at +900 odds.

Dive into more MLB player projections with our list of Friday's top 10 pitchers by projected strikeouts

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