MLB player props today: Tuesday's best props include Payton Tolle [7/27/2026]
Get MLB player props today with projections for Monday's games.
Dimers' MLB props are live for July 28, 2026, with today's top prop bets led by the likes of Payton Tolle, Kyle Bradish and Max Fried.
Our MLB player props model runs continuously, analyzing every matchup, including Red Sox vs. Athletics and Guardians vs. Reds, to surface the best MLB player prop bets across the market.
List of MLB prop bets for Tuesday, 7/27
Sourced from 115+ total MLB props on site today, below are the top 10 MLB player props for July 27, ranked by probability.
Payton Tolle over 0.5 walks allowed (-251)
- Edge: 6.0%
- Probability: 77.5%
- Game: Red Sox vs. Athletics (9:40PM ET)
Our model has found value on Boston's Payton Tolle over 0.5 walks allowed. A probability of 77.5% gives this play an edge of 6.0% at -251 odds.
Kyle Bradish under 2.5 walks allowed (-198)
- Edge: 4.0%
- Probability: 70.5%
- Game: Orioles vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET)
Kyle Bradish’s walks allowed prop shows a 70.5% probability and an 4.0% edge at -198 odds, according to our model.
Max Fried over 3.5 hits allowed (-169)
- Edge: 6.7%
- Probability: 69.5%
- Game: Yankees vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET)
The data highlights value on Max Fried over 3.5 hits allowed, with simulations showing a 69.5% probability and a 6.7% edge at -169.
Max Fried over 14.5 outs recorded (-169)
- Edge: 5.5%
- Probability: 68.3%
- Game: Yankees vs. White Sox (7:40PM ET)
Our model finds value on Max Fried over 14.5 outs recorded, with a 68.3% probability and an edge of 5.5% at -169 odds.
Chase Burns under 6.5 strikeouts (-137)
- Edge: 9.6%
- Probability: 67.4%
- Game: Guardians vs. Reds (7:10PM ET)
Simulations indicate value on Chase Burns under 6.5 strikeouts for Cincinnati, showing an edge of 9.6% at -137 odds.
Keider Montero over 4.5 hits allowed (-126)
- Edge: 9.1%
- Probability: 64.9%
- Game: Orioles vs. Tigers (6:40PM ET)
Keider Montero’s hits allowed prop shows an edge of 9.1% at -126 odds, supported by a 64.9% probability according to our model.
Mitch Keller over 3.5 strikeouts (-156)
- Edge: 3.3%
- Probability: 64.2%
- Game: D-Backs vs. Pirates (6:40PM ET)
Our model highlights value on Mitch Keller over 3.5 strikeouts for Pittsburgh, with a 64.2% probability and a 3.3% edge at -156 odds.
David Peterson over 1.5 walks allowed (-153)
- Edge: 3.5%
- Probability: 63.9%
- Game: Cubs vs. Cardinals (7:45PM ET)
The data shows value on David Peterson over 1.5 walks allowed, supported by a 63.9% probability at -153 odds and an edge of 3.5%.
Andrew Alvarez over 1.5 earned runs (-140)
- Edge: 5.3%
- Probability: 63.6%
- Game: Blue Jays vs. Nationals (6:45PM ET)
A 5.3% edge on the over 1.5 earned runs line makes Andrew Alvarez a value play in Blue Jays vs. Nationals, supported by a 63.6% probability at -140 odds.
Zack Wheeler over 1.5 earned runs (-128)
- Edge: 6.2%
- Probability: 62.3%
- Game: Phillies vs. Marlins (6:40PM ET)
Simulations show value on Zack Wheeler over 1.5 earned runs here, with a 62.3% probability and 6.2% edge at -128 odds.
MLB player prop summary: Monday, July 27, 2026
A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 12:05AM ET:
| Matchup | Prop | Odds | Edge | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox vs. Athletics | Payton Tolle over 0.5 walks allowed | -251 @ DraftKings | 6.0% | 77.5% |
| Orioles vs. Tigers | Kyle Bradish under 2.5 walks allowed | -198 @ DraftKings | 4.0% | 70.5% |
| Yankees vs. White Sox | Max Fried over 3.5 hits allowed | -169 @ DraftKings | 5.5% | 68.3% |
| Yankees vs. White Sox | Max Fried over 14.5 outs recorded | -169 @ DraftKings | 5.5% | 68.3% |
| Guardians vs. Reds | Chase Burns under 6.5 strikeouts | -137 @ BetRivers | 9.6% | 67.4% |
| Orioles vs. Tigers | Keider Montero over 4.5 hits allowed | -126 @ DraftKings | 9.1% | 64.9% |
| D-Backs vs. Pirates | Mitch Keller over 3.5 strikeouts | -156 @ FanDuel | 3.3% | 64.2% |
| Cubs vs. Cardinals | David Peterson over 1.5 walks allowed | -153 @ DraftKings | 3.5% | 63.9% |
| Blue Jays vs. Nationals | Andrew Alvarez over 1.5 earned runs | -140 @ BetMGM | 5.3% | 63.6% |
| Phillies vs. Marlins | Zack Wheeler over 1.5 earned runs | -128 @ DraftKings | 6.2% | 62.3% |
Conclusion
For July 27, 2026, our MLB prop bets feature players such as Payton Tolle, Kyle Bradish and Max Fried. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.
Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
