Mets vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [8/7/2026]

The Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at PNC Park on Friday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.

Carmen Mlodzinski (6-3, 3.15 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Pirates, while the Mets will counter with Zac Thornton (2-2, 2.88 ERA).

Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 53.8% win probability over the Mets.

This article offers further insights into Friday's Mets vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.

Mets vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and statistical analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's MLB game between the Mets and Pirates, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Pirates a 53.8% chance of defeating the Mets.

According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 62.9% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of 8.5 runs has a 50.2% chance of going over,.

Mets vs. Pirates odds [8/7/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Mets +1.5 @ -165 via hard_rock
• Moneyline: Mets @ +125 via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ +106 via Novig

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Mets vs. Pirates picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Mets +1.5 @ -165 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Mets @ +125 via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ +106 via Novig According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Mets vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details

Friday's MLB matchup between the Pirates and Mets at PNC Park is scheduled to commence at 6:40 PM ET.

• Who: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
• Date: Friday, August 7, 2026
• Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
• Venue: PNC Park

Conclusion

We predict the Pirates, with a 53.8% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Friday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.