Mets vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [8/7/2026]
Get New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Friday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates and New York Mets will meet in MLB action at PNC Park on Friday, starting at 6:40 PM ET.
Carmen Mlodzinski (6-3, 3.15 ERA) will start for the Pirates, while the Mets will counter with Zac Thornton (2-2, 2.88 ERA).
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 54.2% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers a closer look at Friday's Mets vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model gives the Pirates a 54.2% chance of beating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 62.9% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 50.1% chance of staying under,.
Mets vs. Pirates odds [8/7/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Mets | Pirates |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-163) | -1.5 (+160) |
| Moneyline | +128 | -127 |
| Total | o8.5 (+106) | u8.5 (-108) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Mets +1.5 | -163 |
| Moneyline | Mets | +128 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | +106 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Mets to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB action between the Pirates and Mets at PNC Park is scheduled to start at 6:40 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Friday, August 7, 2026
- Time: 6:40 PM ET/3:40PM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 54.2% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
