Mets vs. Pirates prediction: Why Pittsburgh is favored to win Sunday's MLB matchup [8/9/2026]
Get New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates predictions for MLB Sunday.
The Pittsburgh Pirates will face the New York Mets, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at PNC Park on Sunday, beginning at 1:35 PM ET.
Jared Jones (2-3, 4.02 ERA) will be the starting pitcher for the Pirates, while the Mets will counter with Sean Manaea (3-5, 4.33 ERA).
Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Pirates a slight edge with a 54.6% win probability over the Mets.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Sunday's Mets vs. Pirates matchup, including best bets and picks.
Mets vs. Pirates prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our leading predictive model gives the Pirates a 54.6% chance of beating the Mets.
According to our model, the Mets (+1.5) have a 63.0% chance of covering the run line, while the over/under total of eight runs has a 54.2% chance of going over,.
Mets vs. Pirates odds [8/9/2026]
We have researched the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Run Line: Mets +1.5 @ -167 via Novig
- Moneyline: Mets @ +132 via DraftKings
- Total: Over 8 @ -105 via DraftKings
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Mets vs. Pirates picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Run line: Mets +1.5 @ -167 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Mets @ +132 via DraftKings
- Total: Over 8 @ -105 via DraftKings According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Mets vs. Pirates game-day updates and essential details
Sunday's MLB action between the Pirates and Mets at PNC Park is scheduled to begin at 1:35 PM ET.
- Who: New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
- Date: Sunday, August 9, 2026
- Time: 1:35 PM ET/10:35AM PT
- Venue: PNC Park
Conclusion
We predict the Pirates, with a 54.6% win probability, will likely beat the Mets in Sunday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Dave Garofolo uses sophisticated AI-driven analytics to make predictions and evaluate player performances in the NBA, MLB, NFL, NHL, NCAAM, and PGA TOUR tournaments, crafting insightful game and prop previews.
