Phillies vs. Orioles prediction: Baltimore favored to win Friday's MLB matchup [7/31/2026]
Get Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles predictions for MLB Friday.
The Baltimore Orioles will take on the Philadelphia Phillies, in what is expected to be a close MLB game, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Friday, beginning at 7:05 PM ET.
Brandon Young (8-2, 3.13 ERA) will start on the mound for the Orioles, pitting him against Andrew Painter (1-8, 7.06 ERA) for the Phillies.
Dimers' advanced MLB model gives the Orioles a slight edge with a 52.2% win probability over the Phillies.
This article offers further insights into Friday's Phillies vs. Orioles matchup, including best bets and picks.
Phillies vs. Orioles prediction: Who will win and cover?
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Orioles a 52.2% chance of beating the Phillies.
According to our model, the Phillies (+1.5) have a 63.2% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 60.7% chance of going over,.
Phillies vs. Orioles odds [7/31/2026]
We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Phillies | Orioles |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | +1.5 (-210) | -1.5 (+175) |
| Moneyline | +106 | -108 |
| Total | o8.5 (-115) | u8.5 (+117) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Phillies vs. Orioles picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Run Line | Orioles -1.5 | hard_rock+175 |
| Moneyline | Orioles | -108 |
| Total | Over 8.5 | -115 |
According to our MLB best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Phillies vs. Orioles game-day updates and essential details
Friday's MLB matchup between the Orioles and Phillies at Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled to start at 7:05 PM ET.
- Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. Baltimore Orioles
- Date: Friday, July 31, 2026
- Time: 7:05 PM ET/4:05PM PT
- Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Conclusion
We predict the Orioles, with a 52.2% win probability, will likely beat the Phillies in Friday's MLB matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
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Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
