Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction: Philadelphia favored to win Monday's MLB matchup [8/10/2026]

The St. Louis Cardinals will square off with the Philadelphia Phillies, in what is expected to be a tight MLB game, at Busch Stadium on Monday, starting at 7:45 PM ET.

The Cardinals will send Hunter Dobbins (2-2, 3.60 ERA) to the mound, while the Phillies will counter with Andrew Painter (1-8, 6.48 ERA).

Dimers' proven MLB model gives the Phillies a slight edge with a 52.0% win probability over the Cardinals.

This article offers further insights into Monday's Phillies vs. Cardinals matchup, including best bets and picks.

Phillies vs. Cardinals prediction: Who will win and cover?

Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Monday's MLB matchup between the Phillies and Cardinals, forming part of our MLB predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Phillies a 52.0% chance of defeating the Cardinals.

According to our model, the Cardinals (+1.5) have a 59.3% chance of covering the run line, while the 8.5-run over/under has a 61.4% chance of going over,.

Phillies vs. Cardinals odds [8/10/2026]

We have sourced the best MLB odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Run Line: Phillies -1.5 (+147) / Cardinals +1.5 (-150)
• Moneyline: Phillies -111, Cardinals +108

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Phillies vs. Cardinals picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Run line: Phillies -1.5 @ +147 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Cardinals @ +108 via Novig
• Total: Over 8.5 @ -122 via Polymarket

According to our best MLB bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 8.5 total runs.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.

Phillies vs. Cardinals game-day updates and essential details

Monday's MLB action between the Cardinals and Phillies at Busch Stadium is scheduled to start at 7:45 PM ET.

• Who: Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
• Date: Monday, August 10, 2026
• Time: 7:45 PM ET/4:45PM PT
• Venue: Busch Stadium

Conclusion

We predict the Phillies, with a 52.0% win probability, will likely beat the Cardinals in Monday's MLB matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.