NBA first basket predictions and picks for Tuesday, November 10, 2026

Our NBA first basket picks and predictions for Tuesday, November 10, 2026, are live, with the Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander projected as the most likely player to score first. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Franz Wagner round out the top three.

Every pick comes from our daily NBA player projections, using detailed first basket stats such as player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups. We also highlight tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to our projected probabilities.

NBA first basket predictions today: Top 10 players

Here are Tuesday's 10 most likely first basket scorers, based on our NBA player projections.

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder @ Trail Blazers): 15.9% probability
• Giannis Antetokounmpo (Heat @ Jazz): 15.5%
• Franz Wagner (Magic @ Kings): 13.9%
• Ajay Mitchell (Thunder @ Trail Blazers): 13.4%
• Jayson Tatum (Celtics @ 76ers): 13.1%
• Deni Avdija (Trail Blazers vs. Thunder): 12.9%
• Paul George (Celtics @ 76ers): 12.6%
• Tyrese Maxey (76ers vs. Celtics): 12.5%
• Lauri Markkanen (Jazz vs. Heat): 12.5%
• Jaylen Brown (76ers vs. Celtics): 11.6%

Even the top-ranked player has 15.9% chance of scoring first, which is why the odds matter as much as the projection.

Best NBA first basket bet tonight: Zach LaVine (+1200)

Zach LaVine stands out as Tuesday's best first basket value bet.

• Matchup: Magic vs. Kings (10:00 PM ET)
• Odds: +1200 (FanDuel)
• Implied probability: 7.7%
• Dimers' probability: 11.3%
• Edge: 3.6%

The Kings' Zach LaVine has a 11.3% chance of scoring the first basket in his matchup tonight according to our model, compared with the 7.7% implied by FanDuel's +1200 odds. That's a 3.6% edge, the largest we've identified on Tuesday's NBA slate.

LaVine is also in our top 10 most likely first basket scorers above, so this pick ranks well on both probability and price.

Our NBA player props page includes a full list of first basket bets, while our NBA player projections page shows first basket probabilities for every player expected to start tonight.

About these NBA first basket predictions

Dimers' NBA first basket model estimates each projected starter's chance of scoring the opening basket using shot frequency, scoring efficiency, and each player's share of their team's expected scoring opportunities.

Projections may change as starting lineups are confirmed. Learn more about how Dimers predictions work.

Dimers encourages responsible gambling.