NBA player props today: Thursday's best props include LeBron James [10/22/2026]

LeBron James over 1.5 steals (+148)

• Edge: 5.4%
• Probability: 45.7%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Cavaliers vs. 76ers (7:00PM ET)

Our model has found value on 76ers' LeBron James over 1.5 steals. A probability of 45.7% gives this play an edge of 5.4% at +148 odds.

Jalen Williams over 1.5 steals (+150)

• Edge: 5.1%
• Probability: 45.1%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Nuggets vs. Thunder (9:30PM ET)

Jalen Williams’s steals prop shows a 5.1% edge at +150 odds, according to our model, which projects him for 1.1 steals on the over 1.5 line.

Jamal Murray under 0.5 steals (+169)

• Edge: 7.3%
• Probability: 44.5%
• Projection: 0.9
• Game: Nuggets vs. Thunder (9:30PM ET)

The data highlights value on Jamal Murray under 0.5 steals, with simulations showing a 44.5% probability and a 7.3% edge at +169.

Jaylen Brown under 0.5 steals (+180)

• Edge: 6.6%
• Probability: 42.3%
• Projection: 1.1
• Game: Cavaliers vs. 76ers (7:00PM ET)

Our model projects Jaylen Brown to put up 1.1 steals today, creating an edge of 6.6% on the under 0.5 line at +180 odds.

Joel Embiid under 0.5 blocks (+175)

• Edge: 5.2%
• Probability: 41.6%
• Projection: 1.2
• Game: Cavaliers vs. 76ers (7:00PM ET)

Simulations indicate value on Joel Embiid under 0.5 blocks for 76ers, showing an edge of 5.2% at +175 odds.

Jalen Williams to score first basket (+750)

• Edge: 1.0%
• Probability: 12.8%
• Game: Nuggets vs. Thunder (9:30PM ET)

Jalen Williams’s to score first basket prop shows an edge of 1.0% at +750 odds, supported by a 12.8% probability according to our model.

Jaylen Brown to score first basket (+750)

• Edge: 0.9%
• Probability: 12.7%
• Game: Cavaliers vs. 76ers (7:00PM ET)

Our model highlights value on Jaylen Brown to score first basket for 76ers, with a 12.7% probability and a 0.9% edge at +750 odds.

Peyton Watson to score first basket (+1100)

• Edge: 2.5%
• Probability: 10.8%
• Game: Cavaliers vs. 76ers (7:00PM ET)

The data shows value on Peyton Watson to score first basket, supported by a 10.8% probability at +1100 odds and an edge of 2.5%.

LeBron James to score first basket (+950)

• Edge: 0.7%
• Probability: 10.2%
• Game: Cavaliers vs. 76ers (7:00PM ET)

A 0.7% edge on the to score first basket line makes LeBron James a value play in Cavaliers vs. 76ers, supported by a 10.2% probability at +950 odds.

(+950)

• Edge: 0.7%
• Probability: 10.2%

Simulations show value on here, with a 10.2% probability and 0.7% edge at +950 odds.

NBA player prop summary: Thursday, October 22, 2026

A quick summary of today’s top props by probability according to our model as of 6:59PM ET:

Conclusion

For October 22, 2026, our NBA prop bets feature players such as LeBron James, Jalen Williams and Jamal Murray. Each pick is grounded in real-time data and advanced simulations to help you bet with clarity and purpose.

Built using automation and human oversight, this article draws on the latest data to deliver accurate, timely insights. If using this article for betting, Dimers encourages responsible gambling.