Pelicans vs. Nuggets Prediction, Picks & Odds

Dimers' Pelicans vs. Nuggets prediction for Saturday, October 24, 2026 including our projected final score and probabilities for the moneyline, spread, and game total.
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NBA
Pelicans
126
:
128
Ball Arena
Nuggets
Ball Arena
TEAM1234T
Pelicans
38 29 45 14 126
Nuggets
24 23 55 26 128
Live Probabilities
Win %
  • Pelicans
    2%
  • Nuggets
    98%
Win Probability
TEAM1234T
Pelicans
38 29 45 14 126
Nuggets
24 23 55 26 128
OT1 3:51 Aaron Gordon misses three point running pullup jump shot
OT1 4:48 Trevon Brazile blocks Saddiq Bey's three point jump shot
Q4 00:48 Aaron Gordon makes two point jump shot
Q4 1:31 Nikola Jokic makes three point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
Q4 1:40 Christian Braun misses three point jump shot
Q4 2:06 Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
Q4 2:31 Aaron Gordon misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:23 Jamal Murray makes two point driving finger roll layup
Q4 3:33 Pelicans misses two point jump shot
Q4 3:54 Nikola Jokic misses three point jump shot
Play by Play
  1. OT1 3:38
    Zion Williamson offensive rebound
  2. OT1 3:51
    Aaron Gordon misses three point running pullup jump shot
  3. OT1 3:58
    Trevon Brazile turnover (Dejounte Murray steals)
  4. OT1 4:23
    Pelicans personal foul
  5. OT1 4:23
    +1
    Nikola Jokic makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    126-128
  6. OT1 4:48
    Trevon Brazile blocks Saddiq Bey's three point jump shot
  7. OT1 4:48
    Christian Braun defensive rebound
  8. OT1 5:00
    (Dejounte Murray gains possession)
  9. Q4 00:01
    Trey Murphy III turnover
  10. Q4 00:16
    Dejounte Murray shooting foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
  11. Q4 00:16
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  12. Q4 00:16
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 3
    126-128
  13. Q4 00:48
    +2
    Aaron Gordon makes two point jump shot
    126-128
  14. Q4 00:55
    Zion Williamson turnover
  15. Q4 1:31
    +3
    Nikola Jokic makes three point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
    126-128
  16. Q4 1:37
    Nuggets personal foul
  17. Q4 1:40
    Christian Braun misses three point jump shot
  18. Q4 1:40
    Pelicans defensive rebound
  19. Q4 2:01
    Nikola Jokic personal foul (Take) (DeAndre Jordan draws the foul)
  20. Q4 2:01
    DeAndre Jordan misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  21. Q4 2:01
    Pelicans offensive rebound
  22. Q4 2:06
    +2
    Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
    121-116
  23. Q4 2:22
    +1
    DeAndre Jordan makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    121-114
  24. Q4 2:31
    Aaron Gordon misses two point jump shot
  25. Q4 2:31
    DeAndre Jordan defensive rebound
  26. Q4 2:45
    Zion Williamson personal foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
  27. Q4 2:55
    Jeremiah Fears shooting foul (Christian Braun draws the foul)
  28. Q4 2:58
    Trey Murphy III turnover (lost ball) (Christian Braun steals)
  29. Q4 3:23
    +2
    Jamal Murray makes two point driving finger roll layup
    126-128
  30. Q4 3:33
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  31. Q4 3:54
    Nikola Jokic misses three point jump shot
  32. Q4 4:00
    Jeremiah Fears misses two point putback layup
  33. Q4 4:03
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  34. Q4 4:39
    Trevon Brazile personal foul (Zion Williamson draws the foul)
  35. Q4 5:01
    Trevon Brazile offensive rebound
  36. Q4 5:16
    Trevon Brazile blocks Trey Murphy III's three point jump shot
  37. Q4 5:35
    Pelicans personal foul
  38. Q4 5:35
    Pelicans 60 second timeout
  39. Q4 5:35
    Instant replay (Challenge: Stands)
  40. Q4 5:35
    +1
    DeMar DeRozan makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    118-107
  41. Q4 5:40
    Jeremiah Fears misses two point jump shot
  42. Q4 6:09
    Christian Braun defensive rebound
  43. Q4 6:09
    Zion Williamson misses two point driving floating jump shot
  44. Q4 6:20
    DeMar DeRozan personal foul
  45. Q4 6:20
    Nuggets lineup change (Nikola Jokic, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray, Trevon Brazile, DeMar DeRozan)
  46. Q4 6:30
    DeMar DeRozan turnover
  47. Q4 6:39
    DeMar DeRozan defensive rebound
  48. Q4 7:03
    +3
    Jamal Murray makes three point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
    118-105
  49. Q4 7:24
    +3
    Trey Murphy III makes three point jump shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)
    118-105
  50. Q4 7:31
    Aaron Gordon misses three point jump shot
  51. Q4 7:44
    Aaron Gordon personal foul (Zion Williamson draws the foul)
  52. Q4 7:44
    +1
    Zion Williamson makes regular free throw 1 of 1
    118-105
  53. Q4 7:59
    Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Marvin Bagley III, Jamal Murray, Trevon Brazile, DeMar DeRozan)
  54. Q4 8:02
    Trevon Brazile misses three point jump shot
  55. Q4 8:13
    Karlo Matkovic offensive foul (Trevon Brazile draws the foul)
  56. Q4 8:19
    Pelicans personal foul
  57. Q4 8:19
    Jeremiah Fears turnover
  58. Q4 8:19
    Aaron Gordon misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  59. Q4 8:19
    +1
    Aaron Gordon makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    112-102
  60. Q4 8:24
    Trevon Brazile misses three point jump shot
  61. Q4 9:04
    +3
    Trevon Brazile makes three point jump shot (DeMar DeRozan assists)
    112-101
  62. Q4 9:16
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  63. Q4 9:24
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  64. Q4 9:24
    Tyus Jones misses two point driving floating jump shot
  65. Q4 9:37
    Derik Queen misses two point turnaround fadeaway jump shot
  66. Q4 9:37
    Marvin Bagley III defensive rebound
  67. Q4 9:55
    Bennedict Mathurin defensive rebound
  68. Q4 10:10
    Marvin Bagley III shooting foul (Derik Queen draws the foul)
  69. Q4 10:10
    +1
    Derik Queen makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    112-102
  70. Q4 10:34
    Bennedict Mathurin personal foul (Tyus Jones draws the foul)
  71. Q4 10:43
    Saddiq Bey misses three point jump shot
  72. Q4 11:09
    DeMar DeRozan offensive rebound
  73. Q4 11:51
    Jordan Poole personal foul (DeMar DeRozan draws the foul)
  74. Q3 00:00
    +2
    Derik Queen makes two point jump shot
    112-102
  75. Q3 00:00
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  76. Q3 00:14
    Herbert Jones personal foul
  77. Q3 00:14
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    112-102
  78. Q3 00:31
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    112-102
  79. Q3 00:51
    +2
    Bennedict Mathurin makes two point jump shot (Jordan Poole assists)
    112-102
  80. Q3 00:55
    Jordan Poole blocks DeMar DeRozan's two point jump shot
  81. Q3 00:55
    Jordan Poole defensive rebound
  82. Q3 1:04
    Jordan Poole misses three point jump shot
  83. Q3 1:22
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    112-102
  84. Q3 1:22
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    112-102
  85. Q3 1:25
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  86. Q3 1:34
    +2
    Nuggets makes two point jump shot
    102-87
  87. Q3 1:42
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point tip dunk
    112-102
  88. Q3 1:47
    Bennedict Mathurin misses three point jump shot
  89. Q3 1:47
    Herbert Jones offensive rebound
  90. Q3 2:06
    Herbert Jones shooting foul (DeMar DeRozan draws the foul)
  91. Q3 2:06
    +1
    DeMar DeRozan makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    102-87
  92. Q3 2:13
    +1
    Derik Queen makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    102-87
  93. Q3 2:13
    Christian Braun personal foul (Derik Queen draws the foul)
  94. Q3 2:13
    +1
    Derik Queen makes regular free throw 1 of 2
    102-87
  95. Q3 2:38
    +1
    Saddiq Bey makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    112-102
  96. Q3 2:53
    Pelicans personal foul
  97. Q3 2:53
    DeMar DeRozan personal foul (Derik Queen draws the foul)
  98. Q3 3:01
    Pelicans personal foul
  99. Q3 3:06
    Nikola Jokic misses two point jump shot
  100. Q3 3:10
    Jamal Murray misses three point jump shot
  101. Q3 3:24
    Bryce Hopkins defensive rebound
  102. Q3 3:29
    Derik Queen offensive rebound
  103. Q3 3:55
    +3
    Nuggets makes three point jump shot
    112-102
  104. Q3 4:10
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    97-76
  105. Q3 4:31
    Derik Queen personal foul
  106. Q3 4:31
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    102-87
  107. Q3 4:35
    DeMar DeRozan personal foul
  108. Q3 4:59
    +2
    DeMar DeRozan makes two point jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)
    95-74
  109. Q3 5:10
    +2
    DeAndre Jordan makes two point jump shot
    95-72
  110. Q3 5:13
    Pelicans misses two point jump shot
  111. Q3 5:27
    Nikola Jokic misses three point jump shot
  112. Q3 5:35
    Dejounte Murray personal foul
  113. Q3 5:49
    +2
    Dejounte Murray makes two point jump shot
    93-72
  114. Q3 6:10
    +3
    Nikola Jokic makes three point jump shot
    93-72
  115. Q3 6:27
    +2
    Jeremiah Fears makes two point jump shot
    95-74
  116. Q3 6:30
    Jeremiah Fears offensive rebound
  117. Q3 6:44
    DeAndre Jordan defensive rebound
  118. Q3 6:44
    Jamal Murray misses three point jump shot
  119. Q3 6:53
    +2
    Dejounte Murray makes two point driving layup
    89-69
  120. Q3 7:09
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  121. Q3 7:09
    DeAndre Jordan defensive rebound
  122. Q3 7:53
    +2
    Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot
    102-87
  123. Q3 8:06
    +2
    Zion Williamson makes two point running layup (Dejounte Murray assists)
    79-61
  124. Q3 8:24
    Nuggets misses two point jump shot
  125. Q3 8:39
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  126. Q3 8:54
    Dejounte Murray personal foul
  127. Q3 8:54
    Jamal Murray misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  128. Q3 9:03
    Bryce Hopkins defensive rebound
  129. Q3 9:40
    +2
    Dejounte Murray makes two point jump shot (Zion Williamson assists)
    102-87
  130. Q3 9:53
    Pelicans personal foul
  131. Q3 10:03
    +2
    Pelicans makes two point jump shot
    95-74
  132. Q3 10:10
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  133. Q3 10:10
    DeAndre Jordan defensive rebound
  134. Q3 10:26
    +2
    DeAndre Jordan makes two point jump shot (Trey Murphy III assists)
    77-61
  135. Q3 10:47
    +2
    Christian Braun makes two point jump shot
    75-61
  136. Q3 11:05
    +2
    Jeremiah Fears makes two point jump shot
    95-74
  137. Q3 11:28
    +2
    Christian Braun makes two point jump shot (Jamal Murray assists)
    95-74
  138. Q3 11:36
    Pelicans misses three point jump shot
  139. Q2 00:00
    Nuggets offensive rebound
  140. Q2 00:04
    +3
    Jamal Murray makes three point jump shot
    67-47
  141. Q2 00:23
    +2
    Derik Queen makes two point tip layup
    67-47
  142. Q2 00:43
    Trey Murphy III turnover (lost ball) (Nikola Jokic steals)
  143. Q2 1:10
    +2
    Trey Murphy III makes two point jump shot (Derik Queen assists)
    67-47
  144. Q2 1:49
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  145. Q2 1:49
    Dejounte Murray blocks Jamal Murray's two point running reverse layup
  146. Q2 1:56
    Trey Murphy III misses three point jump shot
  147. Q2 2:16
    +2
    Christian Braun makes two point jump shot
    67-47
  148. Q2 2:39
    Jordan Poole defensive rebound
  149. Q2 3:14
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  150. Q2 3:44
    +3
    Jamal Murray makes three point jump shot
    67-47
  151. Q2 3:54
    Christian Braun defensive rebound
  152. Q2 3:54
    Jordan Poole misses three point jump shot
  153. Q2 4:07
    +2
    Nikola Jokic makes two point jump shot
    67-47
  154. Q2 4:23
    Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Cam Whitmore, Nikola Jokic, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray)
  155. Q2 4:29
    Trevon Brazile misses two point jump shot
  156. Q2 4:29
    Trey Murphy III defensive rebound
  157. Q2 4:39
    +3
    Trey Murphy III makes three point jump shot
    67-47
  158. Q2 4:53
    Pelicans personal foul
  159. Q2 5:14
    +2
    Derik Queen makes two point cutting layup (Dejounte Murray assists)
    67-47
  160. Q2 5:44
    Stoppage (Out of bounds)
  161. Q2 6:23
    Jordan Poole personal foul (Jamal Murray draws the foul)
  162. Q2 6:23
    Nuggets lineup change (Cam Whitmore, Nikola Jokic, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray, Trevon Brazile)
  163. Q2 6:23
    +1
    Jamal Murray makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    67-47
  164. Q2 6:40
    Nuggets personal foul
  165. Q2 7:00
    +3
    Bennedict Mathurin makes three point jump shot (Jordan Poole assists)
    67-47
  166. Q2 7:13
    Bennedict Mathurin misses two point jump shot
  167. Q2 7:20
    Jamal Murray misses three point jump shot
  168. Q2 7:30
    Saddiq Bey turnover
  169. Q2 7:33
    Pelicans 60 second timeout
  170. Q2 7:44
    Pelicans personal foul
  171. Q2 7:44
    Saddiq Bey defensive rebound
  172. Q2 7:51
    Pelicans turnover
  173. Q2 8:03
    Zion Williamson shooting foul (Aaron Gordon draws the foul)
  174. Q2 8:14
    Aaron Gordon defensive rebound
  175. Q2 8:31
    Jamal Murray misses two point jump shot
  176. Q2 8:44
    Herbert Jones personal foul
  177. Q2 8:58
    +3
    Karlo Matkovic makes three point jump shot
    67-47
  178. Q2 9:36
    +2
    Zion Williamson makes two point jump shot
    47-26
  179. Q2 10:18
    +3
    Saddiq Bey makes three point jump shot (Jeremiah Fears assists)
    45-26
  180. Q2 10:35
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  181. Q2 10:48
    Jeremiah Fears misses two point jump shot
  182. Q2 11:09
    Zion Williamson misses regular free throw 1 of 2
  183. Q2 11:09
    +1
    Zion Williamson makes regular free throw 2 of 2
    67-47
  184. Q2 11:41
    +2
    Zion Williamson makes two point alley-oop layup (Derik Queen assists)
    41-24
  185. Q1 4:16
    Pelicans personal foul
  186. Q1 12:00
    Nuggets misses three point jump shot
  187. Q1 12:00
    Pelicans lineup change (DeAndre Jordan, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray, Jeremiah Fears, Zion Williamson)
  188. Q1 12:00
    Nuggets lineup change (Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic, Bryce Hopkins, Christian Braun, Jamal Murray)
  189. Q1 12:00
    Nuggets offensive rebound
Box Score
Pelicans
PosPlayerPts
Nuggets
PosPlayerPts

Pelicans vs. Nuggets prediction & analysis

Game overview: NBA Saturday

  • Teams: New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets
  • Date: Saturday, October 24, 2026
  • Tip-off: 9:00PM ET
  • Venue: Ball Arena

Current betting odds

  • Spread: Pelicans (+10.5, +104), Nuggets (-10.5, -108)
  • Moneyline: Pelicans +388, Nuggets -400
  • Total (Over/Under): 239.5 points (+102/-104)

Dimers’ win probabilities

  • Pelicans: 19.7%
  • Nuggets: 80.3%

Our NBA win probabilities come from a machine learning model that assesses each team's offensive and defensive performance, along with factors such as recent form, player availability, home-court advantage, and matchup dynamics.

The model uses these projections to forecast probabilities for the moneyline, spread, total points, and the final score.

Projected Final Score

Our model projects the final score for this NBA matchup as Pelicans 114 and Nuggets 124.

This is a margin of 10 points against a spread of 10.5, and a projected total of 238 points against a market line of 239.5.

A projected score is the middle of a range, not a forecast of the exact result. Use it to see how the game is likely to play out and how each side projects against the spread.

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Our Prediction: Who Wins?

After extensive simulations, our model gives the Pelicans a win probability of 19.7%, while the Nuggets have a win probability of 80.3%.

Summary

According to our analysis, the Nuggets are more likely to beat the Pelicans in the NBA game at Ball Arena on Saturday.

That is the straight-up read. Whether either side is worth backing depends on the price, which is what our betting model rates.

Responsible gambling

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