Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows prediction favors Lions to win Saturday's AFL Round 27 matchup [9/12/2026]

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Saturday's AFL matchup between the Crows and Lions, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model currently gives the Lions a 75.9% chance of beating the Crows. According to our model, the Lions (-21.5) have a 50.2% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 188.5 points has a 52.4% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Crows +245, Lions -333
• Total: Over/Under 188.5 (-115/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Lions -21.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Lions @ -333 via DraftKings
• Total: Under 188.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Under 188.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & first bounce details

Saturday's Australian rules football action between the Lions and Crows at The Gabba is scheduled to begin at 5:35 AM ET.

• Who: Adelaide Crows vs. Brisbane Lions
• Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
• Time: 5:35 AM ET/2:35AM PT
• Venue: The Gabba

The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.

Conclusion

We predict the Lions, with a 75.9% win probability, will likely beat the Crows in Saturday's AFL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary AFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.