Sep 11, 2026
Brisbane Lions vs. Adelaide Crows prediction favors Lions to win Saturday's AFL Round 27 matchup [9/12/2026]
Read Article Geelong Cats vs. Carlton Blues prediction: Cats favored to win Friday's AFL Round 26 matchup [9/4/2026]
Updated: | First published:
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Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Dimers' simulation model projects a 65.0% win probability for the Cats at Melbourne Cricket Ground (MCG).
AFL action continues on Friday at 5:40 AM ET as the Carlton Blues square off with the Geelong Cats at Melbourne Cricket Ground.
Dimers' advanced AFL model projects the Cats as the most likely winner in this Blues vs. Cats prediction.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Friday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Cats vs. Blues prediction and odds
Using trusted machine learning and data analysis, we have simulated the outcome of Friday's AFL matchup between the Blues and Cats, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Cats a 65.0% chance of beating the Blues.
According to our model, the Blues (+12.5) have a 51.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 167.5 points has a 51.1% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Blues +150, Cats -196
- Total: Over/Under 167.5 (-115/-115)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Blues +12.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Cats @ -196 via DraftKings
- Total: Under 167.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cats to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & first bounce details
Friday's Australian rules football action between the Cats and Blues at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 5:40 AM ET.
- Who: Carlton Blues vs. Geelong Cats
- Date: Friday, September 4, 2026
- Time: 5:40 AM ET/2:40AM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Cats, with a 65.0% win probability, will likely beat the Blues in Friday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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