Jul 29, 2026
Collingwood Magpies vs. Geelong Cats prediction: Why Cats are favored to win Thursday's AFL Round 21 matchup [7/30/2026]
Read Article Hawthorn Hawks vs. Essendon Bombers prediction: Hawks favored to win Saturday's AFL Round 20 matchup [7/25/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Jason Bevilacqua, Head of Content and Communities
Get Hawthorn Hawks vs Essendon Bombers predictions for AFL Saturday.
The Hawthorn Hawks will square off with the Essendon Bombers in Australian Football League (AFL) action at Melbourne Cricket Ground on Saturday, beginning at 2:15 AM ET.
Based on updated simulations, Dimers' advanced AFL model predicts the Hawks as the most likely winner of the Bombers vs. Hawks game.
This article offers an expanded analysis of Saturday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Hawks vs. Bombers prediction: Who will win Round 20 game?
Using innovative machine learning and data, we have simulated the result of Saturday's AFL matchup between the Bombers and Hawks, forming part of our AFL predictions coverage.
Our independent predictive model currently gives the Hawks a 98.0% chance of defeating the Bombers.
According to our model, the Hawks (-60.5) have a 59.6% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 180.5 points has a 52.0% chance of going over,.
Essendon vs. Hawthorn odds
We have sourced the best AFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
| Bet Type | Bombers | Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| H2H (Moneyline) | +1400 | -10000 |
| Line (Spread) | +60.5 (-115) | -60.5 (-115) |
| Total | o180.5 (-115) | u180.5 (-115) |
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Bombers vs. Hawks picks and best bet
After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
| Bet Type | Pick | Bet Now |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawks -60.5 | -115 |
| Moneyline | Hawks | -10000 |
| Total | Over 180.5 | -115 |
According to our AFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Hawks -60.5 at the spread.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the sportsbook odds.
Hawks vs. Bombers game-day updates and essential details
Saturday's Australian rules football game between the Hawks and Bombers at Melbourne Cricket Ground is scheduled to start at 2:15 AM ET.
- Who: Essendon Bombers vs. Hawthorn Hawks
- Date: Saturday, July 25, 2026
- Time: 2:15 AM ET/11:15PM PT
- Venue: Melbourne Cricket Ground
The AFL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with fans highlighting the high-octane 360-degree nature of the sport as a top reason to follow it.
Conclusion
We predict the Hawks, with a 98.0% win probability, will likely beat the Bombers in Saturday's AFL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
Jason Bevilacqua, an expert in MLB, NHL, NBA, MLS, and NFL, delivers game previews, best bets, and props. Since 2020, as Head of Social and Community at Dimers, he has contributed insightful articles utilizing data-driven models and simulations.
Advertiser disclosure
