South Sydney Rabbitohs vs. Newcastle Knights prediction favors Rabbitohs to win NRL Finals week one matchup [9/11/2026]

Using trusted machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the outcome of Friday's NRL matchup between the Knights and Rabbitohs, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Rabbitohs a 76.6% chance of defeating the Knights. According to our model, the Rabbitohs (-8.5) have a 53.5% chance of covering the spread, while the 48.5-point over/under has a 53.1% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Knights +190, Rabbitohs -250
• Total: Over/Under 48.5 (-115/-115)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Rabbitohs -8.5 @ -110 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Rabbitohs @ -250 via BetRivers
• Total: Over 48.5 @ -115 via DraftKings

According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Rabbitohs to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Friday's Australian rugby league action between the Rabbitohs and Knights at Stadium Australia is scheduled to begin at 5:50 AM ET.

• Who: Newcastle Knights vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs
• Date: Friday, September 11, 2026
• Time: 5:50 AM ET/2:50AM PT
• Venue: Stadium Australia

The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.

Conclusion

We predict the Rabbitohs, with a 76.6% win probability, will likely beat the Knights in Friday's NRL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NRL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.