New Zealand Warriors vs. Dolphins prediction: Why Warriors are favored to win NRL Finals week one matchup [9/12/2026]

Using innovative machine learning and data analysis, we have re-simulated the outcome of Saturday's NRL game between the Dolphins and Warriors, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Warriors a 67.6% chance of beating the Dolphins. According to our model, the Warriors (-5.5) have a 53.6% chance of covering the spread, while the 47.5-point over/under has a 54.5% chance of staying under.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Dolphins +140, Warriors -179
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (-114/-114)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Warriors -5.5 @ -105 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Warriors @ -179 via BetRivers
• Total: Under 47.5 @ -114 via BetRivers

According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Warriors to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Saturday's Australian rugby league matchup between the Warriors and Dolphins at Go Media Stadium is scheduled to start at 2:05 AM ET.

• Who: Dolphins vs. New Zealand Warriors
• Date: Saturday, September 12, 2026
• Time: 2:05 AM ET/11:05PM PT
• Venue: Go Media Stadium

The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.

Conclusion

We predict the Warriors, with a 67.6% win probability, will likely beat the Dolphins in Saturday's NRL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NRL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.