Sep 18, 2026
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Read Article New Zealand Warriors vs. Newcastle Knights prediction: Why Warriors are favored to win Sunday's NRL Round 29 matchup [9/20/2026]
Updated: | First published:
Written by Damien Souness, Chief Experience Officer
Dimers' simulation model projects an 81.5% win probability for the Warriors at Go Media Stadium.
The New Zealand Warriors will face the Newcastle Knights in National Rugby League (NRL) action at Go Media Stadium on Sunday, beginning at 2:05 AM ET.
Dimers' proven NRL model projects the Warriors as the most likely winner in this Knights vs. Warriors prediction.
This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.
Warriors vs. Knights prediction and odds
Using powerful machine learning and data, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NRL game between the Knights and Warriors, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.
Our famous predictive model currently gives the Warriors an 81.5% chance of defeating the Knights. According to our model, the Warriors (-6.5) have a 62.4% chance of covering the spread, while the 46.5-point over/under has a 52.8% chance of staying under.
Latest betting odds
We have researched the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:
- Moneyline: Knights +190, Warriors -250
- Total: Over/Under 46.5 (-108/-120)
All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.
Model picks and best bet
After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:
- Spread: Warriors -6.5 @ -110 via DraftKings
- Moneyline: Warriors @ -250 via BetRivers
- Total: Under 46.5 @ -120 via BetRivers
According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Warriors to win.
These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.
Game info & kickoff details
Sunday's Australian rugby league game between the Warriors and Knights at Go Media Stadium is scheduled to begin at 2:05 AM ET.
- Who: Newcastle Knights vs. New Zealand Warriors
- Date: Sunday, September 20, 2026
- Time: 2:05 AM ET/11:05PM PT
- Venue: Go Media Stadium
The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.
Conclusion
We predict the Warriors, with an 81.5% win probability, will likely beat the Knights in Sunday's NRL matchup.
Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.
This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NRL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.
Damien Souness is Chief Experience Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, helping lead sports media brands such as Dimers. He specializes in creating trustworthy and data-driven content for sports fans, with experience working for globally recognized sports and media organizations.
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