Sydney Roosters vs. Newcastle Knights prediction: Why Roosters are favored to win Sunday's NRL Round 31 matchup [10/4/2026]

The Sydney Roosters and Newcastle Knights will meet in the National Rugby League (NRL) at Allianz Stadium on Sunday, starting at 4:30 AM ET.

Dimers' proven NRL model projects the Roosters as the most likely winner in this Knights vs. Roosters prediction.

This article offers a closer look at Sunday's matchup, including best bets and picks.

Roosters vs. Knights prediction and odds

Using powerful machine learning and statistical analysis, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NRL game between the Knights and Roosters, forming part of our NRL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model gives the Roosters a 76.9% chance of beating the Knights. According to our model, the Roosters (-8.5) have a 53.7% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 43.5 points has a 50.9% chance of going over.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NRL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Moneyline: Knights +200, Roosters -263
• Total: Over/Under 43.5 (-122/-105)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Roosters -8.5 @ -115 via DraftKings
• Moneyline: Roosters @ -263 via BetRivers
• Total: Over 43.5 @ -122 via BetRivers

According to our NRL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Roosters to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Game info & kickoff details

Sunday's Australian rugby league action between the Roosters and Knights at Allianz Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:30 AM ET.

• Who: Newcastle Knights vs. Sydney Roosters
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 4:30 AM ET/1:30AM PT
• Venue: Allianz Stadium

The NRL is available to bet on in the US through all major sportsbooks, with there even being games played in Vegas each season as of 2024.

Conclusion

We predict the Roosters, with a 76.9% win probability, will likely beat the Knights in Sunday's NRL matchup.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NRL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.