WNBA first basket picks and predictions for Playoffs today, Sunday, October 4, 2026

Our WNBA first basket picks and predictions for today—Sunday, October 4, 2026—are live with the Aces' A'ja Wilson projected as the most likely player to score first.

Dimers’ first basket projections derive insights from detailed first basket stats, including player efficiency, shot frequency, and expected starting lineups, forming part of our daily WNBA player projections.

Wilson, Gabby Williams and Jackie Young lead Sunday’s most likely first basket scorers, while we also showcase tonight's top first basket value picks by comparing real-time odds to model-generated probabilities.

WNBA Playoffs first basket predictions tonight (October 4, 2026)

• A'ja Wilson (Aces): 18.8% probability
• Gabby Williams (Valkyries): 16.0% probability
• Jackie Young (Aces): 13.9% probability
• Cecilia Zandalasini (Valkyries): 13.6% probability
• Veronica Burton (Valkyries): 8.9% probability
• Chelsea Gray (Aces): 8.5% probability
• Jewell Loyd (Aces): 7.4% probability
• Kayla Thornton (Valkyries): 7.3% probability
• Kiah Stokes (Valkyries): 4.3% probability
• Brianna Turner (Aces): 1.4% probability

WNBA first basket picks today (October 4, 2026)

• Jackie Young (Aces): 2.8% edge at +800
• Chelsea Gray (Aces): 0.7% edge at +1180
• Gabby Williams (Valkyries): 0.2% edge at +534
• Jewell Loyd (Aces): 0.1% edge at +1280

Edges represent the difference between model probability and implied odds.

For more insights on prop markets and value plays across the league, explore our full list of WNBA prop bets for 10/4.

Conclusion: Betting on today's WNBA first basket

For the Playoffs action on Sunday, October 4, 2026, A'ja Wilson, Gabby Williams and Jackie Young lead our first basket projections, with Young shaping as the strongest value play at +800. All picks and predictions are derived from Dimers’ WNBA first basket model.

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