Oct 6, 2026
NFL Week 5 betting guide: Model backed picks, top player props and sharp Pick 'Ems
Read Article Brian Robinson outscores Bijan with three TDs in Falcons' win over Saints
First published:
Written by Nick Slade, Chief Content Officer
Reviewed by Dave Garofolo
The Falcons' backup scored in three straight quarters on Monday Night Football, an outcome Dimers' model gave a 0.2% chance.
Brian Robinson Jr. scored three rushing touchdowns on Monday Night Football, helping the Atlanta Falcons beat the New Orleans Saints 45-24 at Caesars Superdome. The Falcons' backup running back carried 14 times for 62 yards and caught his only target for 5 yards. Starter Bijan Robinson ran 19 times for 145 yards and two scores, and the pair's five rushing touchdowns tied the franchise's single-game record. The Week 4 win moved Atlanta to 2-2. Brian's night far outran his pregame NFL player projection: Dimers had him at 29.1 rushing yards with a 20.4% chance to score at all.
How Brian Robinson's three touchdowns unfolded
Bijan opened the scoring with a 59-yard touchdown run on Atlanta's third play from scrimmage and added a second score for a 14-0 first-quarter lead. After that, the touchdowns went to Brian.
He scored on runs of 4, 8, and 11 yards, one in each of the final three quarters. His second came on Atlanta's first drive of the second half, building on a 24-7 halftime lead, and his third arrived midway through the fourth quarter. As the margin grew, so did his workload: he finished with five fewer carries than Bijan.
New Orleans played without linebacker Kaden Elliss and edge rusher Carl Granderson, and Atlanta gained 205 of its 420 total yards on the ground.
Brian Robinson vs. his Week 4 projection
Dimers' projections, last updated just before kick off, ranked Brian 194th in PPR scoring for Week 4.
Stat | Dimers projection | Actual |
|---|---|---|
Rushing yards | 29.1 | 62 |
Receptions | 0.6 | 1 |
Receiving yards | 4.5 | 5 |
Anytime TD | 20.4% | Yes |
2+ TDs | 2.2% | Yes |
3+ TDs | 0.2% | Yes |
PPR points | 5.4 | 25.7 |
The model saw a clear RB2 role behind one of the league's top backs, and that read held for most of the first half. A 0.2% chance of three touchdowns works out to roughly 1 in 500. Two things pushed him past it: all three scores came from inside the 20, and the blowout handed him second-half carries that usually go to Bijan.
His 3.8% first-touchdown probability never came into play once Bijan scored on Atlanta's third snap. One big night also doesn't rewrite the role. A back with a 20.4% scoring chance will finish without a touchdown in most weeks, so the useful question for Week 5 is whether his red-zone share holds up. Touchdown probabilities for both Robinsons are on Dimers' NFL props page as Week 5 markets open.
What's next for the Falcons backfield
Brian has now logged double-digit carries and at least 50 rushing yards in three straight games. Atlanta signed him in March to replace Tyler Allgeier as Bijan's backup and Monday's three scores are one more than he managed in all of 2025 with the San Francisco 49ers.
The Falcons host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday Night Football in Week 5 and our NFL predictions refresh daily with the latest injuries and news as that game approaches.
If you want to see where Brian's Week 5 workload lands next to Bijan's, Dimers Pro includes unlimited NFL player projections and props for every game on the slate, and you can cancel or pause anytime.
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To give you the most accurate and helpful information, this article has been reviewed and edited by Dave Garofolo through our fact-checking process.
Nick Slade, with nearly two decades of experience, is the Chief Content Officer at Cipher Sports Technology Group, overseeing content for Dimers. He specializes in soccer, NBA, and NHL betting, leveraging predictive analytics and machine learning to provide accurate betting insights.
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