Bills vs. Texans prediction favors Buffalo to win in NFL Week 1 [2026]

Since our Bills-Texans predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL game between the Bills and Texans, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Bills a 58.1% chance of defeating the Texans in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bills winning 24-22. According to our model, the Bills (-1.5) have a 51.4% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 44.5 points has a 55.1% chance of going over.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Bills -1.5 (+100) / Texans +1.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Bills -108, Texans +108
• Total: Over/Under 44.5 (+102/-104)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bills -1.5 @ 50¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Bills @ 52¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 44.5 @ 50¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bills to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Bills vs. Texans TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bills vs. Texans?

According to our model, David Montgomery is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Bills vs. Texans.

Our projections give Montgomery a 51.5% chance of scoring a TD at Reliant Stadium, while the running back is a 12.4% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

• James Cook (RB): 49.2% probability
• Josh Allen (QB): 39.9%
• DJ Moore (WR): 26.6%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 22.2%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 20.5%

Houston Texans

• David Montgomery (RB): 51.5% prob.
• Nico Collins (WR): 33.5%
• Woody Marks (RB): 29.4%
• Kayshon Boutte (WR): 21.9%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 20.9%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Buffalo Bills

• James Cook (RB): 12.6% prob.
• Josh Allen (QB): 9.5%
• DJ Moore (WR): 5.7%
• Dalton Kincaid (TE): 4.7%
• Khalil Shakir (WR): 4.3%

Houston Texans

• David Montgomery (RB): 12.4% prob.
• Nico Collins (WR): 7.0%
• Woody Marks (RB): 6.0%
• Kayshon Boutte (WR): 4.2%
• Dalton Schultz (TE): 4.0%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bills and Texans. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bills' Josh Allen is projected for 227 passing yards. The Texans' C.J. Stroud is expected to throw for 226 yards.

Bills rushing

• James Cook: 78 yds
• Josh Allen: 33 yds
• Ray Davis: 23 yds

Texans rushing

• David Montgomery: 58 yds
• Woody Marks: 32 yds
• C.J. Stroud: 13 yds

Bills receiving

• DJ Moore: 51 yds
• Dalton Kincaid: 41 yds
• Khalil Shakir: 41 yds
• James Cook: 22 yds
• Keon Coleman: 18 yds

Texans receiving

• Nico Collins: 73 yds
• Dalton Schultz: 38 yds
• Kayshon Boutte: 33 yds
• Xavier Hutchinson: 24 yds
• Jaylin Noel: 22 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 game between the Texans and Bills at Reliant Stadium is scheduled to start at 1:00 PM ET.

• Who: Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 1:00 PM ET/10:00AM PT
• Venue: Reliant Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bills, with a 58.1% win probability, will likely beat the Texans in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.