Can Drake London end touchdown drought vs. 49ers in Week 7?

This might be one of the most perplexing NFL prop betting storylines of the year. Six weeks into the season, Falcons WR Drake London has done almost everything a No. 1 receiver is supposed to do, except score.

He has 31 catches for 550 yards on 47 targets, and no touchdowns.

No other player in the NFL has that combination of production and a blank touchdown column, and despite a strong defensive matchup in Falcons vs. 49ers, Week 7 may be the best chance yet for that to change.

London in a league of his own

To fully illustrate just how unlikely it is for a receiver with London's production to be scoreless, look at how he compares to the rest of the league.

Out of all players in the NFL who played at least 3 games and are averaging 3+ targets per game, Drake London is the only one who:

• has 45 or more targets and 0 touchdowns.
• has 30 or more catches and 0 touchdowns.
• is averaging 55+ receiving yards per game and 0 touchdowns
• has a 60+ yard catch and 0 touchdowns
• is in the top 40 of PPR fantasy rankings with 0 touchdowns

It somewhat ironically echoes a former Falcons WR known for elite production but not always finding the end zone, Julio Jones. The Falcons all-time great reached double-digit touchdowns only once in his career, and is one of only four players to record 900+ receptions and fewer than 70 touchdowns.

But back to London and his unique situation.

London’s 47 targets are more than Kyle Pitts and Jahan Dotson have combined (45), and that duo has caught five touchdowns between them.

He also has more yards after the catch than any receiver in the league. The only player with more is Jaylen Warren, whose total is boosted by one 80-yard catch-and-run in Week 5. London keeps getting the ball and gaining yards once he has it. The touchdowns just haven’t followed yet.

Last week was a microcosm of the season. Michael Penix Jr. threw three touchdown passes against Chicago, all in pass-heavy game script while Atlanta trailed multiple scores, and London, who led the team with 10 targets, didn’t catch any of them.

Why the 49ers matchup points to another pass-heavy script

San Francisco arrives at 6-0 and plays one of the toughest run defenses in football.

The 49ers have allowed just 541 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns through six games. That's allowed them to force teams into comeback mode. Since the Rams' 2Q score in Week 1, 7 of 8 touchdowns vs. the 49ers have come in the second half. Six of those were via the pass.

That matters, because we’ve already seen what Atlanta does when the run game stalls and the scoreboard gets away from it.

Against the Bears, the Falcons trailed 28-7 after three quarters, and Bijan Robinson, one of the most dangerous dual-threat backs in the league, finished with just nine carries and -8 yards on 2 targets.

The 49ers are 4.5-point favorites, so another game where the Falcons are trailing and throwing is a real possibility, and that also coincides with the game total.

What the Dimers model says

Our model expects points in this game. It gives the over on 50.5 total points a 52.5% chance, which suggests more scoring opportunities than San Francisco’s defensive reputation would imply.

In our NFL Player Projections, London ranks 17th among receivers in Dimers’ touchdown probabilities at 32.3%. That’s not top-tier, but his usage suggests he should be scoring more often than he has. 

Receivers who see this much volume rarely go this long without scoring, and the numbers usually catch up.

With a pass-first game script likely and a secondary that’s more vulnerable than its touchdown total suggests, Week 7 could be when London finally scores.

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