Thursday Night Football: Dimers fades 5 Bears-Patriots prop trends

Caleb Williams makes his second start back from injury for the Chicago Bears on Thursday Night Football, this time against a New England Patriots offensive line that is down three projected starters. Kickoff from Soldier Field is set for 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, with Chicago favored by a field goal and the total sitting around 50 points.

Dimers’ Week 7 player projections for this Bears vs. Patriots matchup back several of the hottest NFL betting trends built on recent box scores, and move away from several others. For anyone building Thursday Night Football prop bets, that gap between recent NFL trends and what our model expects this week is the real story.

Williams missed time earlier in the season and made his return in Week 6 against Atlanta, the same game in which Chicago’s pass rush racked up five sacks. The Bears are favored at home again this week, helped by a Patriots offensive line that is banged up: Mike Onwenu and Greg Van Roten are on injured reserve, and Ben Brown, Alijah Vera-Tucker and Morgan Moses are questionable.

A short week of preparation gives Drake Maye even less time to adjust to that pressure. Dimers’ model gives Maye a 21.06% chance of scoring a touchdown himself, a notable number for a quarterback who may need to escape pressure more than once on Thursday.

On the Bears’ side, Kyle Monangai is questionable with turf toe, which puts more Week 7 touches in reach for Roschon Johnson behind lead back D’Andre Swift. Our Week 7 NFL player projections have Swift projected for 64.92 rushing yards, 20.11 receiving yards and the highest touchdown probability on either roster at 58.06%, with a 14.46% chance of scoring first.

Where Dimers’ projections back the trend

Roschon Johnson has gone under 39.5 rushing yards in nine of his last 10 appearances, and Dimers projects him for just 30.66 rushing yards this week, reinforcing that under lean with Swift still the clear early-down option. D’Andre Swift himself has topped 14.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, and our 20.11-yard receiving projection supports another week over that mark.

On the Patriots’ side, Rhamondre Stevenson has cleared 14.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven games, and Dimers projects him for 21.92 receiving yards, comfortably backing the trend. His workload trend of 11.5 or more rushing attempts in six of his last nine games also lines up with a 45.80-yard rushing projection, the highest among New England backs.

Where the model pulls away from the trend

Hunter Henry has topped 39.5 receiving yards in four of his last five games, but Dimers projects him for 37.15 yards this week, just under that line and a reason to treat the recent streak with some caution. A.J. Brown has gone under 69.5 receiving yards in five of his last six games, yet our model has him projected for 72.40 yards, meaningfully above that number.

DeMario Douglas has stayed under 39.5 receiving yards in seven of his last 10 games, and Dimers projects him at 43.33 yards, over that mark. Chicago’s Kalif Raymond has gone under 24.5 receiving yards in three of his last five games, but our projection has him at 31.49 yards, another spot where the model sees more Week 7 volume than the recent sample suggests.

Swift also breaks from his own recent rushing-yardage trend: he has gone under 59.5 rushing yards in four of his last five games, but Dimers’ 64.92-yard projection points the other way, consistent with a Bears team that may lean on the ground game behind a rookie-adjacent passing script on a short week.

None of these differences guarantee an outcome. They show where this week’s matchup, role changes and injury news move our numbers away from what the last several box scores say, which is exactly the kind of gap worth weighing before placing a Thursday Night Football prop bet.

Dimers Pro subscribers get the complete set of Week 7 player prop projections for every skill player in this game, not just the names highlighted here, along with unlimited access to projections across the rest of the Week 7 slate. Pro can be canceled or paused anytime.

Betting involves risk, and trends and projections are reference points, not promises. For free, confidential support, visit Dimers’ responsible gambling resources.