Bengals vs. Falcons prediction: Why Cincinnati is favored to win in NFL Week 9 [2026]

Since our Bengals-Falcons predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Bengals and Falcons, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model currently gives the Bengals a 64.4% chance of beating the Falcons in Week 9 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Bengals winning 28-24.

Key factors favoring the Bengals:

• Bengals offense
• Bengals QB situation
• Bengals team rating

According to our model, the Bengals (-3.5) have a 51.3% chance of covering the spread, while the 52.5-point over/under has a 51.3% chance of going over.

Here's what's driving the over's higher probability::

• Playing conditions
• Bengals recent performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 9 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Bengals -3.5 (+113) / Falcons +3.5 (-111)
• Moneyline: Bengals -163, Falcons +160
• Total: Over/Under 52.5 (-104/+102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our probabilities against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Bengals -3.5 @ 47¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Bengals @ 62¢ via Polymarket
• Total: Over 52.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Bengals -3.5 at the spread.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Bengals vs. Falcons TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Bengals vs. Falcons?

According to our model, Bijan Robinson is most likely to score an anytime TD in Bengals vs. Falcons.

Our projections give Robinson a 65.2% chance of scoring a TD at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium, while the running back is a 16.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Cincinnati Bengals

• Ja'Marr Chase (WR): 51.6% probability
• Chase Brown (RB): 51.4%
• Tee Higgins (WR): 39.9%
• Mike Gesicki (TE): 31.6%
• Samaje Perine (RB): 23.4%

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 65.2% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 34.5%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 29.0%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 22.4%
• Khalil Herbert (RB): 17.8%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Cincinnati Bengals

• Ja'Marr Chase (WR): 11.1% prob.
• Chase Brown (RB): 11.0%
• Tee Higgins (WR): 7.8%
• Mike Gesicki (TE): 5.8%
• Samaje Perine (RB): 4.1%

Atlanta Falcons

• Bijan Robinson (RB): 16.9% prob.
• Drake London (WR): 6.8%
• Kyle Pitts (TE): 5.5%
• Jahan Dotson (WR): 4.1%
• Khalil Herbert (RB): 3.1%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Bengals and Falcons. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 9 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Bengals' Joe Burrow is projected to have a big game with 286 passing yards. The Falcons' Michael Penix is expected to throw for 230 yards.

Bengals rushing

• Chase Brown: 60 yds
• Samaje Perine: 22 yds
• Joe Burrow: 12 yds

Falcons rushing

• Bijan Robinson: 98 yds
• Khalil Herbert: 16 yds
• Michael Penix: 9 yds

Bengals receiving

• Ja'Marr Chase: 82 yds
• Tee Higgins: 80 yds
• Mike Gesicki: 33 yds
• Chase Brown: 27 yds
• Dohnte Meyers: 23 yds

Falcons receiving

• Drake London: 82 yds
• Kyle Pitts: 44 yds
• Jahan Dotson: 35 yds
• Bijan Robinson: 28 yds
• Olamide Zaccheaus: 17 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 9 action between the Falcons and Bengals at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium is scheduled to begin at 9:30 AM ET.

• Who: Cincinnati Bengals vs. Atlanta Falcons
• Date: Sunday, November 8, 2026
• Time: 9:30 AM ET/6:30 AM PT
• Venue: Santiago Bernabéu Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Bengals, with a 64.4% win probability, will likely beat the Falcons in Week 9 of the NFL season.

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This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.