Cowboys vs. Giants prediction favors Dallas to win ‘SNF’ Week 1 [2026]

Since our Cowboys-Giants predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Cowboys and Giants, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our leading predictive model gives the Cowboys a 61.3% chance of defeating the Giants in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Cowboys winning 25-22. According to our model, the Giants (+3.5) have a 54.7% chance of covering the spread, while the 47.5-point over/under has a 50.0% chance of staying under.

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Cowboys -3.5 (+117) / Giants +3.5 (-120)
• Moneyline: Cowboys -156, Giants +153
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (+100/-102)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Giants +3.5 @ 55¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Cowboys @ 61¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 47.5 @ 50¢ via Polymarket

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Cowboys to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Cowboys vs. Giants TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Cowboys vs. Giants?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Javonte Williams is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Cowboys vs. Giants.

Our projections give Williams a 54.2% chance of scoring a TD at MetLife Stadium, while the running back is a 14.0% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 54.2% probability
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 36.1%
• George Pickens (WR): 32.8%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 23.3%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 17.7%

New York Giants

• Cam Skattebo (RB): 46.8% prob.
• Malik Nabers (WR): 32.2%
• Jaxson Dart (QB): 29.5%
• Isaiah Likely (TE): 22.9%
• Malachi Fields (WR): 20.0%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Dallas Cowboys

• Javonte Williams (RB): 14.0% prob.
• CeeDee Lamb (WR): 8.0%
• George Pickens (WR): 7.1%
• Jake Ferguson (TE): 4.7%
• Ryan Flournoy (WR): 3.5%

New York Giants

• Cam Skattebo (RB): 9.8% prob.
• Malik Nabers (WR): 6.1%
• Jaxson Dart (QB): 5.5%
• Isaiah Likely (TE): 4.1%
• Malachi Fields (WR): 3.5%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Cowboys and Giants. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Cowboys' Dak Prescott is projected to have a big game with 268 passing yards, while the Giants' Jaxson Dart is expected to throw for 214 yards.

Cowboys rushing

• Javonte Williams: 80 yds
• Emari Demercado: 19 yds
• Dak Prescott: 10 yds

Giants rushing

• Cam Skattebo: 55 yds
• Jaxson Dart: 36 yds
• Najee Harris: 23 yds

Cowboys receiving

• CeeDee Lamb: 80 yds
• George Pickens: 71 yds
• Jake Ferguson: 35 yds
• Ryan Flournoy: 31 yds
• KaVontae Turpin: 15 yds

Giants receiving

• Malik Nabers: 62 yds
• Isaiah Likely: 41 yds
• Malachi Fields: 31 yds
• Darnell Mooney: 29 yds
• Theo Johnson: 21 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 matchup between the Giants and Cowboys at MetLife Stadium is scheduled to commence at 8:20 PM ET.

• Who: Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
• Date: Sunday, September 13, 2026
• Time: 8:20 PM ET/5:20PM PT
• Venue: MetLife Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Cowboys, with a 61.3% win probability, will likely beat the Giants in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.