Broncos vs. Chiefs prediction favors Kansas City to win ‘MNF’ Week 1 [2026]

Since our Broncos-Chiefs predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the outcome of Monday's NFL game between the Broncos and Chiefs, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our independent predictive model currently gives the Chiefs a 58.6% chance of defeating the Broncos in Week 1 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 22-20.

Key factors favoring the Chiefs:

• Kansas City Chiefs Offensive Efficiency
• Kansas City Chiefs Home Ground Advantage
• Kansas City Chiefs Power Rankings

According to our model, the Broncos (+2.5) have a 51.9% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 43.5 points has a 52.1% chance of staying under.

The main contributing factors to the under being more likely are:

• Kansas City Chiefs Form
• Weather / Conditions

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 1 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have researched the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Broncos +2.5 (-104) / Chiefs -2.5 (+106)
• Moneyline: Broncos +122, Chiefs -125
• Total: Over/Under 43.5 (+106/-108)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best current odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Broncos +2.5 @ 51¢ via Polymarket
• Moneyline: Chiefs @ 56¢ via Novig
• Total: Under 43.5 @ -108 via BetMGM

According to our best NFL bets, the top play to make on this game is Chiefs to win.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Broncos vs. Chiefs TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Broncos vs. Chiefs?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Kenneth Walker is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Broncos vs. Chiefs.

Our projections give Walker a 45.3% chance of scoring a TD at Arrowhead Stadium, while the running back is a 13.3% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Denver Broncos

• J.K. Dobbins (RB): 34.1% probability
• Jaylen Waddle (WR): 30.4%
• RJ Harvey (RB): 27.8%
• Courtland Sutton (WR): 25.2%
• Pat Bryant (WR): 16.3%

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker (RB): 45.3% prob.
• Rashee Rice (WR): 31.0%
• Travis Kelce (TE): 24.9%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 21.0%
• Tyquan Thornton (WR): 13.2%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Denver Broncos

• J.K. Dobbins (RB): 7.1% prob.
• Jaylen Waddle (WR): 6.2%
• RJ Harvey (RB): 5.6%
• Courtland Sutton (WR): 4.9%
• Pat Bryant (WR): 3.0%

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker (RB): 13.3% prob.
• Rashee Rice (WR): 8.2%
• Travis Kelce (TE): 6.3%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 5.2%
• Tyquan Thornton (WR): 3.1%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Broncos and Chiefs. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 1 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Broncos' Bo Nix is projected for 235 passing yards. The Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is expected to throw for 229 yards.

Broncos rushing

• J.K. Dobbins: 53 yds
• RJ Harvey: 23 yds
• Bo Nix: 20 yds

Chiefs rushing

• Kenneth Walker: 68 yds
• Patrick Mahomes: 18 yds
• Emmett Johnson: 16 yds

Broncos receiving

• Jaylen Waddle: 62 yds
• Courtland Sutton: 47 yds
• Pat Bryant: 30 yds
• Evan Engram: 26 yds
• RJ Harvey: 19 yds

Chiefs receiving

• Rashee Rice: 59 yds
• Travis Kelce: 43 yds
• Xavier Worthy: 41 yds
• Tyquan Thornton: 25 yds
• Kenneth Walker: 23 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 1 matchup between the Chiefs and Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium is scheduled to start at 8:15 PM ET.

• Who: Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs
• Date: Monday, September 14, 2026
• Time: 8:15 PM ET/5:15PM PT
• Venue: Arrowhead Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 58.6% win probability, will likely beat the Broncos in Week 1 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.