20 years after the Domecoming, the Saints are the trade on Monday Night Football

Ninety seconds is all it took for the Superdome to come back to life on September 25, 2006.

It was the Saints' first game in the building since Hurricane Katrina, it was Monday Night Football, and the opponent was Atlanta. Steve Gleason, a special teams safety with the Saints, broke through the line and blocked Michael Koenen's punt. Curtis Deloatch fell on it in the end zone, 70,003 people lost their minds, and the Saints went on to win 23-3.

Gleason has since said he "understood that the night was bigger than football." Twenty years later, there's a statue of that block outside the stadium.

"TOUCHDOWN NEW ORLEANS!" - @MikeTirico After Curtis Deloatch scored the TD, the broadcasters went silent for 36 seconds to give the crowd the moment 👏 https://t.co/YuodVYuso9

— New Orleans Saints (@Saints) September 26, 2026

On Monday night the Saints mark the anniversary against the same opponent, on the same stage. Gleason and Deloatch will be honored as Legends of the Game, Irma Thomas is singing the anthem and Trombone Shorty is headlining halftime.

While the football matchup in 2026 is a little less romantic with both teams 1-2 to start the season, the markets on Kalshi present an opportunity according to our NFL predictions.

Dimers trade of the night, via Kalshi

Prices, model output and everything else can be found in our Falcons vs. Saints prediction hub.

Why isn't the market higher on the Saints?

TNF of Week 3 might have something to do with it.

The Falcons put 35 points on Green Bay that night, and two players did most of the damage. Bijan Robinson ran for 194 yards and two touchdowns on 29 carries and was named NFC Offensive Player of the Week. Drake London caught nine passes for 194 yards. Michael Penix, in his 2026 debut, completed 72% of his passes for 256 yards.

It was the kind of performance that gets people trading. Atlanta has been the busier side of the Kalshi moneyline all weekend, with roughly 169,000 contracts traded on the Falcons compared to about 115,000 on the Saints, and that action has kept the Saints price from climbing any higher than 55c.

New Orleans is still the favorite but the money has been coming in for the Falcons.

Tyler Shough has had an impressive start to the season.

What does the Dimers model see?

A close game that New Orleans wins more often than not.

Our model projects a 25-23 Saints win and gives the home side a 58% chance, three points above Kalshi's price. The spread and total are a different story. The model has the Saints covering -1.5 at 51.5% and the Over 47.5 at 52%, and Kalshi has both at 51c. Those numbers are in line with market pricing with no value worth pursuing.

The moneyline is where the gap is. Kalshi has the Saints right as favorites, it just doesn't have them high enough, and we think the team that just had the better highlight reel is getting a little more credit than it should.

Tyler Shough will be a big factor in this game. The second-year quarterback ranks third in the NFL in passing yards (917) and passing touchdowns (8) through three games, and he threw four touchdowns last week. He's facing a Falcons pass rush missing two of its edge rushers, and our NFL player projections have him at 263 passing yards, the most of either quarterback.

Can the Saints slow down Bijan Robinson?

Probably not (can anyone, really?), but the model doesn't count on them needing to.

The Saints rank 27th against the run, and the Falcons lead the NFL in rushing yards. Our model projects Robinson for 90 rushing yards and 38 receiving yards with a 60.9% chance to score.

The Kalshi markets agree with that assessment. Robinson's anytime touchdown is priced at 63c, his 90+ rushing yards at 47c, and his 40+ receiving yards at 49c. The market has already priced in the NFC Offensive Player of the Week. There's no edge in chasing him at these prices.

What about Alvin Kamara?

With Travis Etienne Jr. on IR, the Saints backfield belongs to Kamara again, and we've broken down that story in detail in Alvin Kamara's projections.

The short version for traders is that the market is a little too excited. Kamara's anytime touchdown is trading at 43c on Kalshi, against a 36% chance in our model. The 31-year-old has 51 rushing yards on 18 carries in two games since returning from his knee injury, and he's running into an Atlanta defense that has allowed the fewest rushing yards in the league and no rushing touchdowns.

Are there any prop edges worth a look?

A couple, if you want something alongside the moneyline. Here's how our NFL props model lines up against Kalshi:

Kyle Pitts at 20c is the standout edge on the board. He's the third option in an offense that just fed Robinson and London, which is exactly why the price has drifted, and it's six points below where our model has him. We understand that Pitts typically breaks hearts, so ultimately it's up to whether you trust him or not.

Three ways to play it

Saints moneyline, full size. This is the cleanest position. You're buying at 55c a team our model makes a 58% favorite, in a building that will be as loud as it's been in years.

Saints moneyline plus a Pitts touchdown. Most of your stake on New Orleans, a small piece on Kyle Pitts at 20c as our highest TD edge on the board. The two aren't in conflict. Atlanta can score through its tight end and still lose, and our projected 25-23 final has plenty of points for both sides.

Buy now, manage it during the game. Kalshi contracts trade on an order book until settlement, so a Saints position bought at 55c can be sold back at any point before the final whistle. If New Orleans gets out to an early lead in front of that crowd, you can lock in profit without having to sweat the fourth quarter.

Kalshi promo code "DIMERS": $25 bonus for Falcons vs. Saints

If you're planning to open an account, Monday night is a good one to do it for. Enter the Kalshi promo code DIMERS in the promo/referral field at registration and trade $25 to unlock the current new-user bonus on a CFTC-regulated exchange. That covers a position on the Saints at 55c with plenty left over for a prop on the same game. The code has to go in at sign-up and can't be added to an existing account. New users only, one per person, and not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NJ or OH. Bonus funds must be traded before any resulting funds can be withdrawn. Read our full Kalshi review for more.

For every edge our model finds across the NFL slate, see our NFL best bets, or unlock the full board with Dimers Pro.

FAQ

What's Dimers' best trade for Falcons vs. Saints? Saints to win. Our model gives New Orleans a 58% chance against a Kalshi price of 55c, a three-point edge.

What is Dimers' Falcons vs. Saints prediction? Our model projects a 25-23 Saints win. Find the full breakdown in our Falcons vs. Saints prediction hub.

What are the Falcons vs. Saints odds? New Orleans is a 1.5-point favorite with the total at 47.5. Compare prices across books on our NFL odds page.

Why is Monday's game the 20th anniversary of the Domecoming? On September 25, 2006, the Saints beat the Falcons 23-3 on Monday Night Football in their first game back at the Superdome after Hurricane Katrina. Steve Gleason's blocked punt early in that game is one of the most famous plays in franchise history.

Will Bijan Robinson score a touchdown against the Saints? Our model gives Robinson a 60.9% chance to score, with 90 projected rushing yards. Kalshi prices his anytime touchdown at 63c.

Can I sell a Kalshi position before the game ends? Yes. Contracts trade on an order book until settlement, so a Yes bought at 55c can be sold back at whatever the market is offering at any point before the final whistle.