Chiefs vs. Raiders prediction favors Kansas City to win in NFL Week 4 [2026]

Since our Chiefs-Raiders predictions earlier in the week, we have re-simulated the result of Sunday's NFL matchup between the Chiefs and Raiders, forming part of our NFL predictions coverage.

Our famous predictive model gives the Chiefs a 68.0% chance of defeating the Raiders in Week 4 of the NFL season. Our predicted final score has the Chiefs winning 26-21.

Key factors favoring the Chiefs:

• Las Vegas Raiders Offense
• Kansas City Chiefs Offense
• Kansas City Chiefs Team Rating

According to our model, the Raiders (+5.5) have a 51.6% chance of covering the spread, while the over/under total of 47.5 points has a 52.8% chance of going over.

The main contributing factors to the over being more likely are:

• Playing Conditions
• Kansas City Chiefs Recent Performance

To see win probabilities for every matchup this week, check out our expert NFL Week 4 straight up picks.

Latest betting odds

We have sourced the best NFL odds in America for this game, which are listed here:

• Spread: Chiefs -5.5 (+100) / Raiders +5.5 (-104)
• Moneyline: Chiefs -217, Raiders +213
• Total: Over/Under 47.5 (+104/-106)

All odds are correct at the time of publication and are subject to change.

Model picks and best bet

After matching our predictions against the best available odds, we can reveal our picks for each of the major markets in this matchup. Plus, find our best bet for the game below:

• Spread: Raiders +5.5 @ 51¢ via Novig
• Moneyline: Raiders @ 32¢ via Novig
• Total: Over 47.5 @ 49¢ via Novig

According to our NFL best bets, the top play to make on this game is Over 47.5 total points.

These picks are based on our probabilities matched against the implied probabilities from the current available odds.

Chiefs vs. Raiders TD scorers

Who will score a touchdown in Chiefs vs. Raiders?

According to our list of touchdown scorer predictions for today, Kenneth Walker is most likely to score an anytime touchdown in Chiefs vs. Raiders.

Our projections give Walker a 54.2% chance of scoring a TD at Allegiant Stadium, while the running back is a 13.9% chance of scoring the first touchdown the game.

Anytime touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker (RB): 54.2% probability
• Rashee Rice (WR): 37.5%
• Travis Kelce (TE): 31.9%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 27.9%
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 21.1%

Las Vegas Raiders

• Ashton Jeanty (RB): 48.1% prob.
• Brock Bowers (TE): 37.9%
• Tre Tucker (WR): 20.5%
• Jalen Nailor (WR): 17.7%
• Mike Washington (RB): 16.3%

First touchdown scorer predictions

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kenneth Walker (RB): 13.9% prob.
• Rashee Rice (WR): 8.3%
• Travis Kelce (TE): 6.8%
• Xavier Worthy (WR): 5.8%
• Patrick Mahomes (QB): 4.2%

Las Vegas Raiders

• Ashton Jeanty (RB): 12.1% prob.
• Brock Bowers (TE): 8.8%
• Tre Tucker (WR): 4.3%
• Jalen Nailor (WR): 3.6%
• Mike Washington (RB): 3.3%

Top player props

Discover our predictions for the players likely to lead in passing, rushing and receiving yards for both the Chiefs and Raiders. Head to our NFL player projections page now to access a full list of player prop projections for every offensive player in this matchup and all other Week 4 games.

Quarterbacks

Of the starting quarterbacks, the Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes is projected for 241 passing yards. The Raiders' Kirk Cousins is expected to throw for 231 yards.

Chiefs rushing

• Kenneth Walker: 88 yds
• Patrick Mahomes: 20 yds
• Emmett Johnson: 17 yds

Raiders rushing

• Ashton Jeanty: 61 yds
• Mike Washington: 20 yds
• Kirk Cousins: 4 yds

Chiefs receiving

• Rashee Rice: 61 yds
• Travis Kelce: 49 yds
• Xavier Worthy: 40 yds
• Tyquan Thornton: 29 yds
• Kenneth Walker: 26 yds

Raiders receiving

• Brock Bowers: 68 yds
• Tre Tucker: 44 yds
• Michael Mayer: 28 yds
• Jalen Nailor: 26 yds
• Ashton Jeanty: 24 yds

Game info & kickoff details

The NFL Week 4 matchup between the Raiders and Chiefs at Allegiant Stadium is scheduled to begin at 4:25 PM ET.

• Who: Kansas City Chiefs vs. Las Vegas Raiders
• Date: Sunday, October 4, 2026
• Time: 4:25 PM ET/1:25PM PT
• Venue: Allegiant Stadium

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Conclusion

We predict the Chiefs, with a 68.0% win probability, will likely beat the Raiders in Week 4 of the NFL season.

Additional tools and information for betting safely can be found in our Responsible Gambling hub.

This article's predictions and probabilities are generated by Dimers' proprietary NFL prediction model. Our editorial team reviews the resulting content for accuracy and presentation before publication.